Trump's madman strategy "You tell them: 'This guy is so crazy'"

He wants to keep the USA out of the world - and annex Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal: Donald Trump's foreign policy is unpredictable - with a system. The role model: "Madman" Richard Nixon.

Justin Trudeau announces his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada. And what is Donald Trump doing?

He takes on the "governor", as he mockingly calls the 53-year-old - with his outrageous demand that the country should join the USA. "Many Canadians would love to be the 51st state," writes the New Yorker, completely unmoved by Trudeau's declared departure.

It's not just the huge neighboring country to the north of the United States that Trump has taken a liking to. The incoming president has also already set his sights on the strategically important Panama Canal in the south. Shortly before Christmas, the 78-year-old threatened supporters in Arizona that it must not fall into the "wrong hands". He was referring to China.

Oh, how beautiful Panama is

Trump is also annoyed by the "exorbitant prices" charged for the crossing between the Atlantic and Pacific: "The total rip-off of our country will stop immediately," he said, referring to his inauguration. Panama's president then struggles to explain that the operators set the fees - and not the state. Jose Raul Mulino also emphasizes that his country will not relinquish sovereignty over the canal.

And then there's the issue of Greenland. The idea that the USA could buy the world's largest island from Denmark was first floated by Trump on August 18, 2019. The layman is amazed and the expert is surprised: "I promise not to do that to Greenland," joked Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at the time about the "absurd discussion".

And Trump? Doesn't find it funny at all: "In view of Frederiksen's comment that she doesn't want to discuss the purchase of Greenland, I'm rescheduling our meeting, which was planned for two weeks from now, to another time." The state visit is canceled without further ado: Trump makes it clear that he is serious - however specific his proposal may be.

"Make Greenland Great Again!"

Even before the start of his second term in office, Trump puts the issue back on the table. "I hear that the people of Greenland are MAGA," he writes, referring to his movement. "Make Greenland Great Again!" And: "We will cherish and protect it from a very nasty outside world." That sounds like an offer you can't refuse.

Some of those affected see it quite differently. "Greenland is ours," counters Greenland's Prime Minister Múte B. Egede counters. "We are not for sale and will never be for sale." It is "naive" to think that the happiness of the islanders depends on whether they can become Americans, added MP Aaja Chemnitz on Facebook.

Denmark is also flying the flag: after more than 500 years, the royal house is changing its coat of arms to represent the Faroe Islands and Greenland. But the incoming US administration is not letting up: while Donald Trump Jr. suddenly travels privately to Greenland in this very situation, Elon Musk is calling for the Greenlanders to be able to decide their own future. "And I think they want to be part of America."

Nixon and the Madman theory

Panama, Canada, Greenland: on the one hand, Donald Trump is developing a colonial appetite. On the other hand, he ran on the promise of bringing troops home and keeping the USA more out of world politics and possibly also out of Nato. That doesn't go together.

Canada also in his sightsTrump: Greenland should belong to the USA - son travels there

It's no wonder that even party colleagues are "scratching their heads" over the new Canada and Greenland demands, as "The Hill" describes the confusion among Republicans. Trump's foreign policy is not only confusing friends, but also enemies - and there is a system behind it.

Behind this is the so-called Madman theory: the term is primarily associated with the aegis of Richard Nixon. The former US president tried to portray himself as such a great communist-hater that his opponents were supposed to trust him to compromise on absurd threats.

Painful blows and surprising love

Thanks to Trump's first term in office, there is some evidence that he takes this theory to heart. In April 2017, for example, he thinks aloud about military strikes against North Korea because of the missile program, before Kim Jong-un then writes him "beautiful letters" in the summer of 2018 and the North Korean and the American "fall in love".

An example from the Middle East falls in the same period: when Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against his own population in 2017, Trump said he wanted to have the Syrian dictator killed, but the then Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis talked him out of it. However, the New Yorker's alternative response is also massive.

And it also embarrasses Vladimir Putin, with whom Trump actually maintains friendly relations: Without any agreement with the Kremlin, the US fired 59 cruise missiles at Moscow's ally Syria, destroying important military facilities there.

The surprise strike on Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani on 3 January 2020 also shows that Trump remains unpredictable and can strike hard. However, the Madman tactic can also be applied to other areas of politics.

South Korea also dealt with the Madman

This could also include the announcement not to defend those NATO partners that spend less than two percent of their gross domestic product on armaments - as Trump indicated in February 2024. In the meantime, the Republican is reportedly even calling for the figure to be raised to five percent.

The Madman theory can also be put into practice in negotiations, as an example from October 2017 shows. At the time, Washington was negotiating a new trade agreement with Seoul: "Axios" describes a telling scene.

"You tell them, 'This guy is so crazy, he could walk out of the negotiations any minute,'" Trump reportedly tells his negotiator. "You tell them: 'Any minute! And by the way, maybe I will."

Will the Madman act work a second time?

The scheme still fits in with the negotiations that Trump initiated with Germany, Japan and South Korea during his first term of office to get these countries to pay more for the US troops stationed there. The 78-year-old cultivated the image of the Madman between 2017 and 2021, according to Foreign Policy.

But will it work a second time? The specialist magazine has its doubts: the posturing has worked more with allies than opponents, it argues. And now everyone has adapted to this script. And who will tell those under pressure that it will stop if they give in?

However, if Trump is not stripped of his madman image, there is a risk that the American will go one better and make even crazier threats, which could set off an unforeseeable spiral, Foreign Policy believes.