Showdown in the Chancellery Will the traffic light coalition collapse today?

The traffic light coalition has never been so close to the abyss. Today could decide whether it crashes.

After weeks of dispute over the budget and economic policy, the leaders of the SPD, Greens and FDP want to clarify today whether there is still a basis for further cooperation. A meeting of the coalition committee this evening will focus on how the billion-euro hole in the 2025 budget can be plugged and how the badly battered German economy can be brought back on track.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) and Robert Habeck (Greens) will meet for two preparatory rounds before the discussions, interrupted by a cabinet meeting. They had already met on Monday and Tuesday and want to try to come up with a joint proposal for the coalition committee. If they manage to do this, the big meeting with all party and parliamentary group leaders in the evening should only be a formality. If they fail to reach an agreement, the traffic light coalition will be on the brink of collapse.

The starting position

Some time ago, Lindner proclaimed the "autumn of decisions" for the coalition. He was referring primarily to next year's budget, which is due to be passed by the Bundestag on November 29. He is also concerned with a strategy for leading Germany out of the economic crisis. To this end, he has made proposals that have escalated the dispute within the coalition. In his concept for an economic turnaround, Lindner calls for, among other things, the permanent abolition of the solidarity surcharge, including for high earners, and a change of course in climate policy.

There is considerable opposition to such ideas from the SPD and the Greens. However, Habeck has also taken a step towards Lindner. He has declared his willingness to use the billions in subsidies that will become available after the postponement of the construction of an Intel plant in Magdeburg to plug holes in the budget. "However, I now also expect the others to make proposals in their own areas," he said afterwards.

Scenario one: The traffic light gets together

Since Monday, Scholz, Habeck and Lindner have been looking for solutions with the support of the head of the Chancellery, Wolfgang Schmidt (SPD), and two state secretaries. If they reach an agreement today, which is then approved by the coalition committee, the 2025 budget would still have to be passed by the Bundestag. On November 14, the Budget Committee will hold the decisive adjustment meeting to clarify the final details. Two weeks later, the plenary will vote. If both go well, the traffic light coalition would have cleared the most difficult hurdle and could continue to govern. However, further differences would remain, for example over the controversial pension package or migration policy.

Scenario two: The traffic light is at an end

If no agreement is reached on Wednesday or on Thursday night, the "traffic light" coalition could come to an end. One possibility would be for the FDP to leave the government. Theoretically, the FDP ministers could also be dismissed by an unnerved Chancellor Scholz. However, this is considered much less likely.

So far, Scholz does not appear to be losing patience. On Tuesday, he once again appealed to the coalition partners in a somewhat roundabout way to pull themselves together. "It's clear that it could be done," he said. "In this respect, the question is not whether it can be done at all, but whether it is possible, and everyone has to work on it now."

After a traffic light exit: minority government or new election

And what happens if the traffic light system collapses? If the FDP pulls out, the SPD and Greens would be faced with the question of whether they want to govern without a majority in parliament or call a new election. In the event of a minority government, the Red-Greens would be dependent on support from the opposition for every decision in the Bundestag. However, the CDU/CSU is pushing for an early general election and is therefore unlikely to be cooperative. It would therefore be more likely that the remaining government would sooner or later initiate a new election via a vote of confidence in Chancellor Scholz.

Negotiations under the impression of the US election

The outcome of the US elections will play a not insignificant role in Wednesday's negotiations. If Donald Trump is elected president for a second time, this would create uncertainty worldwide and could increase the willingness to reach an agreement within the coalition. This is because a new election scenario with a possible election date at the beginning of next year would mean that Germany would first be in the hot election campaign phase and then in coalition negotiations in the first few months of a Trump government and would only be able to act to a limited extent.

dpa