Harris must tremble Why Jewish voters could decide the US election
The US presidential race is extremely close. Even the slightest shift in voter behavior in the decisive states can make the difference.
22.10.2024, 23:40
24.10.2024, 15:48
dpa
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- Jewish voters in the USA traditionally lean towards the Democrats.
- But in the current election campaign, the party and its candidate Kamala Harris must fear for votes from this group of voters.
- Polls suggest that most Jewish voters continue to support the Democrats.
- Nevertheless, any tiny shift in the swing state of Pennsylvania could have a huge impact.
Rona Kaufman in the US state of Pennsylvania sees signs all around her that some Jewish voters feel abandoned by the Democrats - and may vote for Republican Donald Trump in the presidential election on November 5. It is reflected in their Facebook feed. In the unease she registered at a recent Democratic Party Q&A event in Pittsburgh. And she sees it in her family.
She doesn't think any relative in her own or an older generation will vote for Harris, "and we've never voted Republican," the 49-year-old Kaufman says, referring to Democratic front-runner Kamala Harris. "My sister has a Trump billboard in front of her house, and that's a big change."
How big? Polls suggest that most Jewish voters continue to support the Democrats. Still, any shift, even a small one, in the swing state - swing voter state - of Pennsylvania could have a huge impact: Tens of thousands of votes have tipped the balance here in the past two presidential elections.
Perhaps tipping the scales
Jews make up only a small proportion of the electorate in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the "blue wall" states that Democrats have increasingly relied on in past elections. But when the race is extremely close - as it is this time - they form a large enough constituency to perhaps tip the scales.
And many Jewish voters say that the 2024 election is like no other they can remember. This is because it takes place against the backdrop of the growing fallout from the Hamas attack on Israeli soil on October 7, 2023. This includes this year's anti-Israel protests in many cities and on university campuses. Many Jews say they feel more insecure because of this and because of increasing anti-Semitic incidents in the USA.
Harris and Trump know what even small departures could mean. This has forced the vice president to walk a tightrope between Jewish voters and voters of Arab descent - both a traditionally Democratic electorate. Harris had to reconcile continued support for Israel, anger over the Hamas massacre in Israel and outrage over the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians and massive destruction in Gaza, so to speak.
Trump wants to be the "best friend of the Jews"
President Joe Biden's administration has tried to persuade Israel to end the fighting, but continues to provide it with military aid. Trump has sought to exploit disappointment among some Jewish voters by saying, for example, that Harris "doesn't like" Jewish people. Jews who did not vote for him should "get their mental health checked" and he would be the "best friend Jewish Americans have ever had in the White House".
According to a survey published in September by the Pew polling institute, however, around two thirds of them want to vote for Harris. In 2020, 70 percent of Jews supported Biden, according to a survey by the AP news agency and the Norc polling center. The question is whether this has changed, especially as Jews see Israel's survival in a new light given the expansion of the war against Hamas to include Hezbollah and potentially Iran. This has also brought the relationship between the US and Israel back into focus.
Many in Pennsylvania say that they have never received as much attention in election campaigns as this time - because the state plays a central role in the election. Trump and other Republicans are trying to portray the Democrats as a party torn between its traditional unconditional support for Israel and a growing group within its own ranks accusing Israel of war crimes in Gaza, calling for an immediate cessation of attacks and an end to US military aid to Israel.
"Reluctant Trump voters"
For some Jews, who generally vote Democrat, this has resonated. "I think there are people who are reluctant Trump voters who are afraid to be Jews in this country," says Jeremy Kazzaz, a Harris supporter in Pittsburgh. He also points out, among other things, that the Democrat has consistently fought against anti-Semitism, which is relatively unknown to many voters. Harris also has a Jewish husband who campaigns for her a lot.
Nevertheless, her stance on Israel is viewed differently by Jewish voters. Supporters, for example, see it as strong support that the Biden administration recently sent Israel a Thaad missile defense battery including operating personnel. But others see only limited support, for example with regard to Biden's insistence that Israel not attack Iranian nuclear facilities or oil fields.
Steve Rosenberg from Philadelphia voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020. Now he will return to Trump - in large part because the Biden administration lifted sanctions imposed on Iran during the Trump era and thus, in his eyes, provided Tehran with money to finance a war against Israel. Biden and Harris had "capitulated to Iran".
Many Jews who support Harris, on the other hand, see Trump as a threat to democracy. This is important, they say, because minorities - including Jews - have reason to fear persecution under dictators. They cite a whole list of Trump statements that they find threatening - including a recent one according to which he considers military action against "enemies within" to be conceivable.
