Threat of escalation What happens after the death of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah?

Israel's military has struck the Lebanese Hezbollah militia to the core. What happens next after the targeted killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is completely open.

According to Israeli reports, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an attack on Friday in a suburb of Beirut. "Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world," the Israeli military announced. The important Hezbollah commander for the south of the country, Ali Karaki, was also killed.

There was initially no confirmation from Hezbollah, which could only announce the death of its leader after a considerable delay.

The death of Nasrallah, who had led the organization for 30 years, is Israel's most serious blow against Hezbollah and thus one of its greatest enemies for decades. The consequences of this for the conflict with Israel, for the Middle East region and in Lebanon itself can hardly be predicted at present.

Several buildings destroyed

According to Israel's own account, the military attacked the headquarters of Hezbollah, which is said to have been located under residential buildings. After the attack in the suburb of Haret Hreik near the airport, thick clouds of smoke could be seen, followed by large piles of rubble. According to state media, several buildings were completely destroyed. As a result, there could be dozens or even hundreds of deaths. According to the Ministry of Health, at least six people were killed and 91 injured.

Nasrallah had been at the head of the Shiite militia since 1992. He was one of Israel's most difficult opponents. He coordinated closely with Iran and its Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), Hezbollah's most important supporter. He transformed the militia into a much more powerful and dangerous organization than it was during the time of his predecessor.

Nasrallah, who was killed at the age of 64 and left behind four children, received his religious training in the two most important centers of Shiite Muslims: in the Iraqi pilgrimage city of Najaf and in Qom, Iran. In 1982, he joined the newly founded "Party of God".

After the death of leader Abbas al-Mussawi, who was assassinated by Israel in 1992, he was elected as his successor. He saw the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon in 2000 and what he described as a "divine victory" at the end of the war in 2006 as a great triumph for Hezbollah.

Iran's reaction unclear

With Nasrallah's death, the conflict with Israel, which seemed to follow certain rules in the confrontations for almost a year, could spiral even further out of control.

However, it is not clear whether Iran, as the militia's most important supporter, will rush to help in the event of a war. The new Iranian government under President Massud Peseschkian is struggling with a severe economic crisis and is striving for a rapprochement with the West. Although Iran's military leadership announced retaliation after the killing of Hamas foreign leader Ismail Haniya at the end of July, this has yet to materialize.

Hezbollah has also been hit hard by massive attacks by Israel in recent weeks. It has been significantly weakened in terms of its leadership, its means of communication and probably also its fighting morale.

Two possible scenarios

Several scenarios are now possible: Hezbollah could give up the fight for the time being, stop firing on Israel, agree to a ceasefire and withdraw around 30 kilometers from the border - as stipulated by a UN resolution. Israel would have achieved one of its war aims if more than 60,000 people were able to return to their homes in the north of the country.

Or Hezbollah expands its attacks against Israel and attacks Israeli cities and military targets with state-of-the-art rockets. It is also questionable to what extent Iran will rush to Hezbollah's aid.

In Lebanon, too, it is unclear in what form the militarily, politically and socially very powerful organization will continue to exist.