Threat of retaliation What will follow Iran's missile attack on Israel?
Iran's nuclear facilities could be a target for an Israeli retaliatory attack. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Government supporters in Iran celebrate the attack on Israel.
Image: dpa
The number and locations of Iran's missile silos are subject to strict secrecy. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Iran's Revolutionary Guards fired around 200 missiles at Israel.
Image: dpa
Iran's nuclear facilities could be a target for an Israeli retaliatory attack. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Government supporters in Iran celebrate the attack on Israel.
Image: dpa
The number and locations of Iran's missile silos are subject to strict secrecy. (archive picture)
Image: dpa
Iran's Revolutionary Guards fired around 200 missiles at Israel.
Image: dpa
Following the missile attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced retaliation. What is the threat now in the increasingly escalating conflict?
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- On Tuesday evening, Iran fired around 200 missiles at Israel.
- Following the attack, there is growing concern about a further escalation and a possible retaliation by Israel.
- The answers to the most important questions.
The air force of the Revolutionary Guards, Iran's elite military force, has directly attacked its arch-enemy Israel for the second time this year. They fired around 200 missiles aimed at air bases and the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence service.
According to Israeli sources, the attack was largely repelled - but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want to leave it unanswered. Questions and answers on the increasing escalation of the conflict:
What might an Israeli counterattack look like?
The New York Times reported, citing US officials, that in one possible scenario Israel could attack Iran's nuclear facilities. In particular, the enrichment facilities in Natan, the heart of the Iranian program, could be targeted. The facility deep under a mountain range in central Iran has long been considered a possible target in the conflict between the Islamic Republic and Israel. The West has repeatedly accused Tehran of striving for nuclear weapons.
Attacks on the infrastructure of the Iranian oil and gas industry could also severely affect the leadership of the resource-rich country. Despite strict international sanctions, the government continues to generate its main income from oil sales, with China being the main customer.
Experts believe that leading politicians or military commanders themselves could also be potential targets. In recent weeks, Israel's military and intelligence services have shown that they can reach their enemies even in well-protected bunkers deep underground by killing leaders of the Islamist Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia. However, such attacks would probably have the greatest potential for escalation.
How well are Israel and Iran positioned militarily?
With more than 600,000 active soldiers and around 350,000 reservists, the Islamic Republic of Iran has one of the largest armies in the Middle East. In recent decades, the country has invested heavily in its missile and drone arsenal. Hypersonic missiles, which can reach Israel in just a few minutes, were also used for the first time in the attack on Israel. The locations of the missile silos and drone bases are secret, but some are said to be protected deep underground or in mountainous regions.
Iran's air force is its greatest weakness. The fleet is considered to be very outdated and its modernization is faltering due to international sanctions. Many aircraft and helicopters date back to the time before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when the country had close relations with the USA. The same applies to Iran's air defenses, which would be significantly inferior to modern fighter aircraft in the event of an attack by Israel.
Israel's military strength surpasses that of Iran in many areas. Its air force is considered one of the most modern in the world, with advanced fighter jets and drone technology. Thanks to its close military partnership with the USA, Israel has access to state-of-the-art weapons systems. Israel's foreign intelligence service Mossad is known for its espionage and sabotage operations. In addition, it is considered certain that Israel possesses nuclear weapons - although this has never been officially admitted.
The confrontation threatens to escalate - for whom is the greater risk?
Since the outbreak of the Gaza war around a year ago, the decades-long shadow war between Iran and Israel has repeatedly threatened to escalate and develop into a major regional conflagration. Since the Hamas terror attack on October 7, 2023, Israel has been facing a multi-front conflict with militant Islamist groups. Tehran has been supporting these militias for decades in the fight against their common arch-enemy.
Netanyahu's government is being criticized internationally for the high number of casualties in the Gaza Strip and a possible invasion of Lebanon. At the same time, the army and secret service have recorded military successes with the killing of Hamas foreign leader Ismail Haniya and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. The Iranian leadership may also have felt compelled to launch the missile attack after supporters accused it of inaction.
An incalculable risk for Iran's political and military leadership is the Iranian people themselves. A large part of society in Iran is critical of the government and the Islamic system of rule after years of political repression. In view of the military tensions, even the new President Massud Peseshkian, who is considered a moderate, has been unable to change this. He has recently sought a rapprochement with the West and called for new nuclear talks to ease sanctions in order to overcome the economic crisis in the country.
What role does the USA play?
Israel is likely to receive support from the USA. Its most important ally is providing the Jewish state with unlimited assistance in defending against Iranian missiles. At the same time, the US administration under President Joe Biden is terrified of being dragged into a conflagration-like Middle East war just a few weeks before the presidential elections. In the event of a retaliatory attack on Iran, Israel could be dependent on American help, be it in the form of intelligence information or the provision of bunker-busting bombs. "Israel would do well to coordinate its response with the US administration before it strikes", wrote the pro-government newspaper "Israel Hajom". A few weeks before the elections, Washington does not want to become entangled in unmanageable military activities.
dpa