Iran Trump's election victory reshuffles the cards in the Middle East

Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election is also likely to have a massive impact on the conflict in the Middle East.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping for more support for his hard line against the Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Shia militia Hezbollah in Lebanon and against Iran as their main supporter. However, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and other heads of state from the Arab world are also hoping for good cooperation with the future US president.

Trump's "historic return to the White House" means "a new beginning for America and a powerful renewed commitment to the great alliance between Israel and America", Netanyahu announced. Abbas expressed confidence that Trump would support the Palestinian people's quest for freedom and independence. However, the unpredictability of the future president could become an additional risk factor in the region.

What to expect from Trump in the Middle East

During his election campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed that he could end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and bring peace to the region. On the one hand, according to media reports, he said that Israel has the right to finish the "job in Gaza"; on the other hand, he is said to have called on Netanyahu to end the war by the time he takes office in January.

According to Matt Duss, deputy director of the US research institute Center for International Policy, Trump's main concern is to get the war out of the news: "Because he doesn't like anything that takes him out of the limelight."

How Trump positioned himself in his first term of office

In his first term (2017-2021) as US President, Trump positioned himself as a close ally of Israel. He snubbed the Palestinians by moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognized the occupied Golan Heights as Israeli territory and took a hard line against Israel's arch-enemy Iran. "I've done more for Israel than any other president, and frankly, I've done more for Israel than any other person," Trump claimed during the election campaign.

What Israelis expect from Trump

The majority of people in Israel hope that Trump will improve the security situation in the region. However, specific expectations of the future US president differ.

"Among the far right, there is the idea that with Trump, Israel will have a free hand in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, and even Iran will have to watch out," Time magazine quoted Nimrod Novik, former Israeli government advisor and current researcher at the Israel Policy Forum, as saying. "In the center-left camp, the expectation is that Trump, unlike Biden, will not allow himself to be pushed around by Netanyahu. This is likely to present Netanyahu with the dilemma of either standing up to his ultra-religious coalition partners or to an unpredictable Trump."

Trump's stance on Iran

In his first term in office, Trump terminated the nuclear agreement with Iran and imposed tough sanctions against the government in Tehran. He also ordered the deadly drone attack on the powerful Iranian general Ghassem Soleimani. Most recently, he spoke out in favor of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

However, in view of the changed situation in the region, Trump is unlikely to be able to count on the resolute support of the Arab Gulf states. "The new Trump administration may not be able to rebuild its entire network of allies to pursue an intense anti-Iran policy, especially if that policy does not have the clear goal of reaching a comprehensive agreement with Iran," writes Jonathan Panikoff of the Atlantic Council research institute in an analysis. According to his office, Netanyahu already spoke to the future US president about the threat posed by Iran in his first phone call with Trump after his election victory.

What Biden can still achieve before the end of his term of office

Outgoing US President Joe Biden no longer has to take any political sensitivities in the US into account until January. "In the two-month transition period, President Biden, freed from campaigning and political constraints, will likely seek to leave his legacy and bring about a quick end to the war in the Middle East and an agreement on the return of the hostages," according to an analysis by the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "In this context, Biden may not hesitate to exert even more pressure on Israel."

SDA