Drastic consequences feared Trump stops military aid - how long can Ukraine hold out now?

Donald Trump is following up his threats with action - and is withdrawing support for Ukraine in the defensive war against Russia for the time being. The warnings and cries for help from Kiev are not being heard.

DPA

04.03.2025, 09:54

04.03.2025, 11:49

dpa

Three years after the start of the war, the US government is suspending its military aid to Ukraine for the time being, putting the country under attack from Russia in severe difficulties. According to the White House, President Donald Trump wants to achieve a peace agreement. Aid will therefore be suspended and reviewed until further notice.

Previously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had once again incurred Trump's wrath with his statement that a deal to end the war was still a long way off.

The halt to US military aid, which was announced a few days after an unprecedented scandal during Zelensky's visit to the White House, is likely to have drastic consequences for Ukraine. Since the start of the war in February 2022, the United States has been the country's main supporter in its defense against the aggressor Russia.

Trump's order comes into force immediately and concerns weapons and ammunition worth more than one billion US dollars that are already being delivered or have been ordered, reported the New York Times - some of which have already arrived in neighboring Poland, according to US media.

The New York Times cited a government official who said that military aid would only be resumed if Trump could see that Ukraine was committed to peace negotiations with Russia.

According to the Washington Post, the decision was made at a meeting in the White House on Monday. Trump exchanged views with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President J.D. Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, among others.

Trump had already questioned the Ukraine aid during the election campaign and openly threatened to withdraw all US support from Kiev after the public dispute with Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday. He claimed that the President of Ukraine - marked by countless war deaths and widespread destruction - was not interested in peace as long as the USA was providing military assistance. Selensky saw this as a strategic advantage over Russia.

The Ukrainian leadership, on the other hand, has repeatedly made it clear that a peace deal without security guarantees is worthless because Russia could then attack again at any time. After all, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has already ignored agreements, international treaties and international law in the past. And the USA is the most important security guarantor of all. Trump, on the other hand, sees the Europeans as having a duty to deliver and wants to leave it to them to secure any peace.

Under Trump's predecessor Joe Biden, the United States was the most important supporter and by far the largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine. Since the start of the Russian invasion, Biden's administration has provided more than 65 billion dollars (around 58 billion Swiss francs) in military aid to Kiev.

This has been supplemented by other forms of support, such as economic or humanitarian aid - as well as help with the training of Ukrainian fighter jet pilots and the provision of intelligence information. It remains to be seen whether this aid will now also be affected by the US government's radical change of course.

Since Trump took office in January, there have been no new US military aid packages for Ukraine. So far, however, the attacked country has benefited from arms deliveries that were initiated during Biden's term of office. It was previously estimated that the Ukrainian military would be able to continue fighting at the same intensity for around six months with the arms deliveries initiated by Biden.

Ukraine also receives a lot of support from other Western countries. However, it is highly questionable whether this can compensate for the loss of US aid. The supplies from the USA cannot be replaced, particularly in terms of missiles for the Patriot air defense systems. There is now a threat of weaknesses in the air defense system that the Russian military could exploit for attacks with ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. There would be hardly any protection for the Russians' battered energy system, armaments factories and other strategically important targets.

Trump had recently sharply criticized Zelensky, calling him a "dictator" and warmonger and questioning his political legitimacy - just as the Kremlin had done previously. Instead, the US president sought talks with Putin and closeness to the Russian president, who started the war against Ukraine with his order to attack in February 2022. During Zelenskyi's visit to Washington, Trump and his Vice President J.D. Vance then made harsh accusations against their guest in front of the world public, accusing him of a lack of gratitude, among other things.

Shortly before announcing the halt to US military aid, Trump went one better and reacted angrily to Zelensky's statements to journalists in London, according to which a deal to end the war was still "very, very far away". "This is the worst statement that Zelensky could make and America will not put up with it much longer," Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. "It's what I've been saying: This guy doesn't want peace as long as he has America's support."

Numerous Western heads of state and government as well as the leaders of the EU and NATO discussed the future course of the war in Ukraine on Sunday - without the USA. At the meeting in London, it was decided that a group of states led by the UK and France should work with Ukraine on a peace plan, which should then be discussed with the USA and, at best, implemented together with Washington.

Trump then teased on Truth Social that Zelensky's allies had in fact admitted that they were lost without the United States. This was not a convincing statement to show strength towards Russia.

Selensky spoke out in favor of a quick end to the war with Russia, but under acceptable conditions. "We need peace, a just, fair peace and not an endless war," he said in his evening video message before news of the halt to US military aid became public. The basis for this was to maintain the current Ukrainian positions on the front and thus create the conditions for "real diplomacy".

To this end, Zelenskyi once again insisted on security guarantees for his country. "A lack of security guarantees allowed Russia to start the occupation of Crimea and the war in Donbass eleven years ago," the head of state pointed out. The large-scale invasion by the Russian army that began in 2022 was also the result of a lack of security guarantees. "And the whole world sees this and the whole world recognizes it."

Trump's Vice President Vance also commented on this point in an interview on Fox News. If you really want to ensure that Putin's army does not invade Ukraine again, the best security guarantee is to link the future of Ukraine with economic benefits for the USA. In recent weeks, Trump's government has been trying to reach a raw materials agreement with Kiev, which included US access to rare earths stored in Ukraine.

So far, the Ukrainian government has not agreed to such an agreement. When asked whether the agreement was dead or could still be revived, Trump referred to his upcoming speech to both chambers of the US parliament on Wednesday night. He will make a statement there.

More videos on the topic