Advance on Russian territory Ukraine's sudden change of course surprises the world
Ukraine dares to attack Russian territory - but for what reason? An expert explains.
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- Ukraine dares to advance on Russian territory.
- The attack came as a surprise, analyzes expert Mick Ryan.
- He also explains what the background could be.
The Russian army has been under pressure in the Kursk region since the beginning of the week. Ukrainian troops are repeatedly attacking Russian territory and thousands of Russians have already been evacuated.
Ukrainian soldiers are said to have already advanced ten kilometers into Russian territory. Several towns have been conquered and many Russian soldiers have surrendered.
But what is behind the advance? According to the American military expert Mick Ryan, there are various theories. One thing is clear: the attack on the region came as a surprise.
"Surprise is an important continuity in human competition and warfare. The goal is to shock the enemy and overwhelm them when they are weakest or least expecting it," he writes in a thread on Platform X.
"This shock and the accompanying collapse of the enemy's cohesion and ability to respond effectively can then be used to seize ground and destroy enemy formations."
Ukraine better positioned - but with what goal?
According to Ryan, there have been attacks on Russian territory in the past. But this time there are clear differences. "This time it is a multi-brigade operation."
Among other things, it is clear that the 22nd and 82nd brigades are deployed, according to expert Ryan. "Both are highly equipped elite brigades. The Ukrainians have therefore deployed experienced forces."
In addition, according to Ryan, Ukraine had also brought air defense guns to the front. Russia has tried to respond with helicopters and fighter jets - but so far without success. "This indicates that Ukraine's air defense is more successful than it was in 2023."
Ukraine has now advanced into Russia on at least two axes. This poses problems for Russia's army, analyzes Mick Ryan. However, the situation is unclear. It is not known how deep Ukraine has actually advanced. But: "The attack shows that surprises are still possible in this war."
Various options conceivable
But what goals is Ukraine pursuing with its attack on Russian territory? According to Ryan, it is still far too early for a definitive analysis. Nevertheless, there are various theories.
For example, Ukraine could be speculating that Russia will have to move its troops from other sections of the front. "The Russians will have to respond, and even they don't have a bottomless pit to do so. To respond to the Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region, they will have to adjust their defenses elsewhere." Ukraine could then advance on the weakened sections of the front.
Another goal of Ukraine could be to block important road and rail lines and thus cut off Russia from supplies. The Kursk nuclear power plant is also a possibility. "But Ukraine is still a long way from achieving this."
A third strategic goal could be to boost morale among the Ukrainian population. "Given the past eight months of defensive operations, the constant air strikes on infrastructure and the ongoing energy shortages, the will of the people will be at the forefront of the Ukrainian government's thinking about the future course of the war." Success stories are needed, Ryan said, and an incursion into Russian territory could provide a morale boost.
The exact objectives will only become clear over time, Mick Ryan concluded his analysis. It is also not yet clear whether the move is the right one or whether it could turn out to be a mistake.
