Demonstration of power How Israel is teaching Iran and Hezbollah to be afraid

Iran is conspicuously reticent these days when it comes to the Middle East. No wonder: Israel has broken Tehran's long arm in Lebanon, and even in their own country the mullahs are not safe.

The Israeli airstrike in Beirut on September 27 not only kills Hassan Nasrallah, but also a high-ranking Iranian military officer: in addition to the Hezbollah chief, Abbas Nilforushan, a prominent general in the Revolutionary Guard, is also killed.

However, Tehran is keeping a low profile after this attack: threats of retaliation against Israel remain absent. "Everyone should be aware that the situation is extremely explosive and that anything is possible at any time - including war," warns Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Head of State Ayatollah Ali Khamenei merely declares: "Nasrallah was not only a personality, but a symbol of a new political ideology and a path that will continue without him." The reactions from Iran seem strangely muted.

An indication of the emotional situation in Tehran comes from Beirut, where Nasrallah's deputy spoke out for the first time on September 30. Naim Kassim also emphasizes that everyone in Hezbollah is replaceable and that a new leader will soon be found.

"The Israelis have hit back pretty hard"

"We are ready if the Israelis decide to invade [Lebanon], and the resistance forces are ready for the ground battle," emphasizes the 71-year-old, but Kassim looks as if he is not feeling well, notes the Times of Israel. The Hezbollah vice president is also visibly sweating in the recording.

Kassim has good reason to be nervous. Shortly after the clip is released, Israel's army begins its ground offensive, and there seems to be little Kassim's people can do about it. "Hezbollah's ability to strike back or generally act in a coordinated manner has basically evaporated," says US analyst Peter Zeihan, assessing the situation.

The reason for this is Israel's tough approach, explains the 51-year-old. Iran wanted to take advantage of the Gaza war and do a bit of PR by instructing Hezbollah to fire a few rockets at Israel. "The Israelis hit back pretty hard," says Zeihan, "and managed to show that their intelligence operations didn't suffer as much as they thought."

"How deep did the Israelis penetrate you?"

Zeihan alludes to the failure of the services to prevent the Hamas attack on October 7, explaining how Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies were rigged with explosives to hit the Shiite organization hard. "If you're in Hezbollah or Iran, you have to wonder how deeply the Israelis have penetrated you."

Israel's motto is "de-escalation through escalation", explains Zeihan: "You want to prove to the other guy that you can do more, that you can hit harder until he shuts up and sits down so you can have the last word." This is the hint to Iran in particular, the American believes: "We acted through the pagers you gave your proxies."

Zeihan explains how the disruption of communication has forced Shiite fighters to meet in person - only to then bomb these locations with serious consequences. This makes it impossible to coordinate military units: it seems doubtful that Hezbollah can withstand an Israeli ground offensive under these circumstances and in view of the destruction of weapons depots.

Mossad infiltrates Iranian anti-Israel unit

"Iran is looking for a way to have the last word and show everyone that they still matter, but they just can't at the moment," Zeihan said. "They can't strike back directly because if they do, a lot more people and states will be drawn into it - including a US aircraft carrier and a battle group that would definitely shoot back."

The USA has reportedly increased its troops in the region to 43,000 servicemen and women: the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is moored in the Gulf of Oman. The USS Harry S. Truman is in the Atlantic and is due to arrive in the Mediterranean in a few days to join the USS Wasp. There are also various US Air Force squadrons in the region.

Washington's long arm is helping to slow Iran down. And Tehran is also aware of the infiltration by the Israeli secret service: according to former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Mossad has even infiltrated the unit responsible for espionage in Israel.

Memories of the Mossad assassination attempt on Fachrisadeh

"We set up a unit to counter Israel, and the person leading it turned out to be a Mossad agent," Ahmadinejad told CNN Turk on September 30. In 2021, the man who led 20 other agents responsible for the killing of Iranian scientists was exposed.

The fact that Iranian bigwigs are not safe from the Mossad even in their own country was demonstrated on November 27, 2020. Back then, Israeli agents managed to smuggle in a machine gun, place it in a vehicle, wire it up and position it along the route taken by nuclear physicist Mohsen Fachrisadeh.

The trigger is pulled from hundreds of kilometers away and the researcher loses his life. The incident shows Tehran what Israel is capable of - even if the country never officially accepts responsibility for the attack.

Tehran has good reason to hold back in the ongoing invasion of southern Lebanon. And the mullah regime may even have to worry: "When Iran is finally free - and the moment will come much sooner than people think - everything will be different," oracles Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on September 30.