Situation in Ukraine The front "could collapse", warns an expert

Because Vladimir Putin wants to create facts by January 20, Kiev is groaning under military pressure on all fronts. This could collapse in the Donbass, warns one expert. This is also due to the Kursk attack.

Of course, there are also positive signs with regard to the war in Ukraine. At a political level, for example: following a meeting of the defense ministers of Germany, France, the UK, Spain and Poland in Berlin on 25 November, the Europeans announced that they wanted to do more for Kiev.

The SPD's Boris Pistorius promised to put Volodymyr Zelensky in a position of strength for future negotiations. Meanwhile, Oslo is planning to increase Norwegian aid to Ukraine to almost 2.4 billion Swiss francs in the coming year.

There is also a new supply of weapons. The Czech Republic also wants to purchase artillery ammunition for Kiev in 2025, two Iris-T air defense systems are due to arrive in Ukraine from Germany this year - and even the navy is being reinforced with a minehunting boat that the Netherlands is taking out of service.

Putin's army is "grinding" its way through the front line

But in truth, there is uncertainty about what the future holds when Donald Trump moves into the White House on January 20: The only thing that is certain is that this date is the deadline for Vladimir Putin to push the front as far west as possible. And Kiev is feeling the effects. In Kursk, in Donbass and also in the south.

Undeterred by losses, the Russian army advances: It is putting "powerful claws" around individual areas and "grinding" its way through the defensive lines until they collapse, Colonel Yevgeny Sasyko tells the BBC. Military expert Marina Miron from King's College London even warns that the front in eastern Ukraine "could actually collapse".

While Moscow has already occupied 99 percent of the Luhansk Oblast, only 66 percent of Donetsk has been conquered, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Putin's forces have yet to take 8,000 square kilometers.

Russia's new tactics - and the Ukrainian antidote

The Russians are currently relying on a new tactic: infantry enters an area, deploys, disperses in all directions and seeks cover. Although drones and artillery kill many of the attackers, troops are gradually amassing.

The Ukrainian opponents in turn fight them with commandos who, well camouflaged and armed with night-vision goggles, unexpectedly invade this cover and eliminate the Russians. It is obvious that the corresponding videos cannot be shown here.

Nevertheless, the massive Russian deployment of men and material is having an effect. In Kursk in particular, the deployment is paying off: 40 percent of the territory that the Ukrainian army has captured in Russia has already been lost again.

Kursk: "tactical brilliance" or "strategic catastrophe"?

Putin is desperate to avoid having enemy troops still there at the end of January, which would make Kursk a bargaining chip in any peace talks. Military expert Marina Miron has mixed feelings about the Kursk advance.

On the one hand, the invasion of Russia is a moment of "tactical brilliance", but on the other hand it could be a "strategic catastrophe" for Kiev.

The idea behind it is to gain political bargaining chips, but also to relieve the pressure on the front in the Donbass because Moscow is withdrawing troops. "What we see instead is that the Ukrainian units are tied up there."