More power for extremists and populists Strong AfD results in eastern Germany pose problems for traffic light parties
In the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the traffic light parties suffer a defeat. The day after, they discuss the consequences. Complicated government formations lie ahead in the federal states.
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- Following the success of the AfD in the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the battered traffic light parties in Berlin are discussing the consequences.
- Difficult government formations are looming in the federal states. In both Saxony and Thuringia, the CDU wants to be prime minister.
- However, it is unclear which alliances could succeed.
- Although the AfD is far ahead in Thuringia, it is likely to be left out of the formation of a new government because the other parties have ruled out a coalition with it.
Following the AfD's success in the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the battered "traffic light" parties in Berlin are discussing the consequences. Together with the top candidates from the federal states, the party leaders are answering questions. Difficult government formations are looming in the federal states. In both Saxony and Thuringia, the CDU wants to be prime minister. However, it is unclear with which alliances this could succeed.
CDU in Thuringia needs BSW - and the Left
Although the AfD is far ahead in Thuringia, it is likely to be left out of the formation of a new government because the other parties have ruled out a coalition with it. For a while, there had been hopes that an unprecedented alliance between the CDU, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the SPD might be enough, but then there was a stalemate of seats in the state parliament: 44 for the possible three-party coalition on the one side and 44 seats for the possible opposition of the AfD and the Left on the other.
Such an alliance would therefore also be dependent on the Left Party. The co-chairman of the Thuringian Left Party, Christian Schaft, told dpa that should toleration negotiations or similar become necessary, his party would enter these talks "openly". For the CDU, such a model is likely to mean discussions, as the party has so far ruled out an alliance with the Left in a resolution passed at the federal party conference.
CDU state leader Mario Voigt did not yet want to commit to whether a government led by him would be tolerated by the Left. He initially announced that he would approach the SPD and also be "open to talks" with the BSW. However, CDU politicians in particular are bothered by the fact that Wagenknecht was a member of the GDR state party SED and later a leading figure of the communist platform in the Left Party. However, a coalition would be possible, as the CDU is not allowed to form a coalition with either the AfD or the Left in accordance with an incompatibility resolution - but the BSW is not covered by this.
Previous black-green-red alliance in Saxony without a majority
In Saxony, the CDU-led government with Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer's Greens and SPD will fall just short of forming a new government. Unlike in Thuringia, an alliance of CDU, BSW and SPD would have a majority. Kretschmer said that his CDU was ready to take on responsibility again and form a stable government.
None of the other parties want to form a coalition with the AfD, which is also classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist party in Saxony.
The result in Thuringia
According to the preliminary results, the AfD, a party classified as right-wing extremist, has become the strongest force in a state election in Thuringia for the first time in post-war history - with 32.8 percent (2019: 23.4 percent). The CDU with top candidate Mario Voigt landed 23.6% (21.7%).
The new alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) achieved 15.8 percent from a standing start - leaving Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow's Left Party behind, which only managed 13.1 percent (31.0). The traffic light parties recorded heavy losses: The SPD recorded its worst result in a state election since the founding of the Federal Republic with 6.1% (8.2). The Greens left parliament with 3.2% (5.2), as did the FDP with 1.1% (5.0).
The AfD therefore received 32 seats in the Thuringian state parliament (22). The CDU has 23 seats (21), the BSW 15 and the Left Party still has 12 seats (29). The SPD has 6 seats (8).
Around 1.66 million people were called to vote. Voter turnout was 73.6%, significantly higher than in 2019, when it was 64.9%.
The result in Saxony
According to preliminary results, the CDU remains the leading party in Saxony with 31.9% (2019: 32.1%). The AfD is close behind with 30.6% (27.5%). The BSW, a split-off from the Left Party, achieved 11.8% from a standing start. The SPD is at 7.3 percent (7.7). The Left achieved 4.5 percent - less than half the share of the vote from five years ago (10.4). However, it won two direct mandates in Leipzig and is therefore represented in the state parliament according to its second vote result, although it is below the five percent threshold.
With 5.1 percent (8.6), the Greens once again enter parliament. The FDP misses out - as it did in the last two state elections.
In the Saxon state parliament, the AfD therefore has 41 seats (38), the CDU 42 seats (45). The BSW has 15 representatives. The SPD has 9 seats (10), the Greens have 6 seats (12), as does the Left Party (14). The Free Voters also have one member of parliament, who won a direct mandate.
Around 3.3 million citizens were called to vote. Voter turnout was 74.4 percent. In 2019, it was 66.5 percent.
Setback for the traffic light in the federal government
The results are a severe setback for the traffic light parties in the federal government. SPD leader Saskia Esken called on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to make it clearer that the SPD is leading the government in Berlin. From the FDP came ricochets from party vice-chairman Wolfgang Kubicki, who wrote on Platform X that the "traffic light" had lost its legitimacy. Green Party leader Omid Nouripour blamed the poor results on "superfluous disputes" in the traffic light coalition. However, it is considered unlikely that one of the three parties will let the coalition collapse prematurely, even in view of poor poll results in the federal government.
In the CDU, the difficult question of whether and how there can be cooperation with the BSW and the Left Party must be answered. Party leader Friedrich Merz had initially strictly rejected cooperation with the BSW. Following protests from campaigners in the east, Merz backed down and declared the issue to be a matter for the state politicians.
dpa