France Sighs of relief and skepticism after the start of the ceasefire

A sigh of relief on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, but also skepticism: with the agreed ceasefire between Israel and the Hezbollah militia, both sides are heading into a new and uncertain chapter of their decades-old conflict.

Over the course of the ceasefire, which will initially last 60 days, there are numerous pitfalls that could reignite the war that has been going on for almost 14 months. Initially, however, the main relief is that the heavy mutual shelling and massive bombardments in Lebanon have come to an end for the time being.

The ceasefire brokered by the USA and France came into force at 4.00 a.m. on Wednesday, whereupon the explosions and the thundering of fighter jets in Lebanon ceased almost to the minute, as a reporter from the German Press Agency reported. A feared final major attack by Hezbollah on Tel Aviv, for example, failed to materialize. During the night, the people of Lebanon celebrated the - at least temporary - end of the war. Many of the 800,000 or so displaced people in the country set off to return to their homes. However, skepticism prevailed among the inhabitants of the Israeli border towns, many of whom do not believe that the agreement with Hezbollah can guarantee their safety.

An agreement with many pitfalls

There are many pitfalls in the details of the agreement. According to informed circles in Lebanon, the remaining Hezbollah fighters are to withdraw behind the Litani River around 30 kilometers north of the border with Israel. However, it remains unclear who decides whether those returning to the southern areas are fighters, sympathizers or civilians. On the very first day of the ceasefire, the Israeli military reported several incidents in the south in which the army fired shots at suspicious persons.

The comparatively weak Lebanese army, which according to reports is to be increased from 5,000 to 10,000 soldiers in the border area, is said to be a safeguard in the south. However, it already failed to enforce agreements to end the hostilities after the last war in 2006. There are therefore also doubts as to whether it can ensure that Hezbollah's heavy weapons and infrastructure in the south of Lebanon are destroyed, as reportedly envisaged in the agreement.

Withdrawal of Israeli ground troops as a possible point of contention

The withdrawal of Israeli ground troops, which invaded the neighboring country at the end of September, could also become a point of contention. The gradual process, in which none of its soldiers are to remain in Lebanon after 60 days, leaves room for delays and different interpretations, for example if Hezbollah does not keep its part of the agreement. In addition, Israel reserves the right to resume military action in Lebanon at any time under an additional US guarantee. Here, too, it is unclear how far the USA's commitments to Israel extend in this independent agreement.

Overall, the agreement moves along the lines of UN Resolution 1701, which was never fully implemented and ended the war in 2006. "The challenges are the same as they were 18 years ago," says Lebanon expert Heiko Wimmen from the Crisis Group think tank. Namely the question of how to ensure that Israel and Hezbollah adhere to the agreement in the long term and what is to become of the militia's arsenal, which was one of the most heavily armed paramilitary groups in the world before the war began.

Israel wants to focus on conflict with Iran

When announcing the ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of Israel's major successes on seven fronts with regard to the Iranian "axis of resistance" - Tehran and its allies in the region, including Hezbollah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Now Israel can concentrate on its most important arch-enemy and prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, said Netanyahu.

Slight hope for an end to the Gaza war

The ceasefire with Hezbollah has raised cautious hopes that the bloody Gaza war could now also come to an end. But is this justified? Hamas has reaffirmed its fundamental readiness for an end to the fighting. However, a Hamas representative also told dpa that the organization was insisting on its conditions for a ceasefire.

Egyptian security sources said that the USA was in contact with Egypt, Turkey and Qatar in order to reach an agreement on an end to the Gaza war. There are also intensive efforts to reopen the Rafah border crossing to Egypt, which has been occupied by Israel for months and is the most important "gateway to the world" for the suffering Palestinians.

A commentator for the Israeli newspaper "Jediot Achronot" wrote that Netanyahu had left "the most urgent and painful question unanswered in his speech: Why didn't he do in Gaza what he did in Lebanon?" She accused the head of government of having "given up on the hostages". Instead, he is now marketing an alleged victory over Hezbollah.

SDA