France Political upheaval in Paris: Left in the lead, Prime Minister resigns

The day after the unexpected result of the parliamentary elections, France has to reorganize itself. The shift to the right is weaker than expected - a left-wing alliance is expected to become the strongest force in the newly elected National Assembly. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has drawn the first conclusions and announced his resignation. However, a majority capable of governing is not yet in sight and the left lacks a common leadership. It is also uncertain what the result will mean for Germany and Europe.

According to the Ipsos and Ifop institutes, the Nouveau Front Populaire made up of left-wingers, communists, socialists and greens could end up with between 177 and 192 of the 577 seats - a major surprise.

The centrist camp of President Emmanuel Macron and Attal, on the other hand, has dropped from 250 to between 152 and 169 seats. The Rassemblement National (RN) around Marine Le Pen and her allies will grow from 88 to between 138 and 145 seats - and is therefore only likely to end up in third place. However, none of the groups are likely to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats.

Victory celebrations and riots

Riots broke out at rallies in cities across the country during the night. In Paris, thousands of people gathered on the Place de la République in the center of the capital to celebrate the victory of the left-wing alliance. According to media reports, some of the demonstrators clashed with police, who then used tear gas. Wooden barricades were set on fire. There were also clashes in Lille, Rennes and Nantes.

Left sees government responsibility - despite deep rifts

France's divided left united just a few weeks ago for the election to form the Nouveau Front Populaire. In the European elections at the beginning of June, the parties ran separately. There is a dispute within the left, particularly over the old-left leadership icon Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The populist, who stands out with his Eurosceptic statements and is clearly pro-Palestinian, is heavily criticized even within his own party.

The alliance of leftists, communists, socialists and greens does not have a clear leadership. There is also no common program.

Nevertheless, the left-wing party announced its claim to government after its surprise victory. "We have won and now we will govern," said Green Party Secretary General Marine Tondelier. The founder of the French left-wing party Mélenchon also called on Macron to ask the left-wing alliance to govern.

Le Pen looks to the future

Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) was actually expected to win by a landslide. After the first round of elections a week ago, forecasts saw the RN just below an absolute majority and therefore possibly in a position to form the next government. A government of right-wing nationalists - probably the nightmare scenario for Germany and the EU - seems to have been averted for the time being. Nevertheless, the RN has made significant gains.

Le Pen remained calm after the first projections: "The tide continues to rise and our victory today is only postponed." RN leader Jordan Bardella also said that his party was the only alternative to the supposed "unity party" of the left and the center forces.

The left and Macron's centrists had formed an alliance of convenience before the second round of elections. In order not to take votes away from each other in constituencies where three candidates made it to the second round and thus help the RN to win locally, a number of left-wing and liberal candidates withdrew. They called on their voters to vote against the RN in any case.

Grand coalition or minority government?

What happens next is unclear for the time being. It is uncertain whether the left can form a minority government on its own. The other parliamentary groups could topple such a government with a vote of no confidence.

The left could also try to gain support from the centrist forces - either as a minority government with acquiescence or in a kind of grand coalition. In view of the opposing political orientations, however, it is not clear whether this could succeed. The leader of the Socialists, Olivier Faure, has already declared that there should be no "coalition of opposites".

It is unclear whether head of state Macron will accept Attal's resignation and appoint a leftist as prime minister. In such a constellation, Macron would lose power and the prime minister, who is in charge of government affairs, would become more important.

What this would mean for Germany and Europe would depend very much on who was appointed to the post. The left-wing alliance has very different positions on many major political issues.

Uncertain future

Should none of the camps find a governing majority, the current government could take over temporarily or an expert government could be appointed. In such a scenario, France would be threatened with political gridlock. Another dissolution of parliament by Macron and a new election are not possible until July 2025.

SDA