Traffic light coalition brokenIs this just the beginning of a much bigger crisis?
Sven Ziegler
6.11.2024
The traffic light coalition is history, Germany is facing new elections - but what happens next? The country is facing a major crisis, experts analyze in the first moments after the break-up.
06.11.2024, 23:03
Sven Ziegler
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The traffic light government has collapsed.
The FDP has left the coalition.
Experts agree that Europe is likely to face troubled times.
Scholz wants to face a vote of confidence in parliament in January and enable a decision on an early election. The Bundestag should vote on this on January 15, the SPD politician said in Berlin. He added: "In this way, the members of the Bundestag can decide whether to clear the way for early elections."
The election could then "take place by the end of March at the latest, in compliance with the deadlines set out in the Basic Law".
The FDP announced its intention to leave the traffic light coalition immediately. This means that the government has lost its majority in the Bundestag.
What will become of the federal budget?
The big question now is what will become of the 2025 federal budget. There is no longer a traffic light majority for this. It is considered unlikely that the CDU/CSU will be able to secure a majority.
If no budget is passed, a so-called provisional budget would apply from January. For the time being, only expenditure that is necessary to maintain the administration and fulfill legal obligations will be possible.
In practice, however, the Ministry of Finance can authorize the ministries to use a percentage of the funds in the unapproved draft budget each month.
Cooperation with Merz hardly possible
Scholz also announced on Wednesday evening that he would also talk to opposition leader Friedrich Merz and explore the possibility of temporary cooperation.
However, according to experts, it is unlikely that the CDU/CSU will be open to talks. The prospect of new elections is too tempting for Merz and the CDU/CSU. Friedrich Merz, whose internal party rivals Markus Söder (CSU) and Hendrik Wüst (CDU) have paved the way for his candidacy for chancellor in recent months, will therefore hardly want to enter into cooperation with the now unpopular traffic light parties.
In addition, Merz only angered the traffic light parties last weekend when he commented on Lindner's economic paper of all things, which has now caused a rift. Unlike Scholz, Merz was a great supporter of the paper and said that his ideas would "go even further".
"Perhaps the most difficult moment in the history of the Federal Republic"
Germany's claim to want to take on a leading role within Europe is massively damaged by the withdrawal of the traffic light system. Especially after Donald Trump's election victory and the numerous uncertainties, Europe now lacks an important pillar of support.
The President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Moritz Schularick, wrote on Platform X on Wednesday morning of "perhaps the most difficult moment in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany".
Vielleicht der schwierigste Moment in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik, zur inneren Strukturkrise kommen nun massive außenwirtschaftliche und sicherheitspolitische Herausforderungen, auf die wir nicht vorbereitet sind (trotz der vielen Mahnungen). Wir müssen jetzt umschalten.1/n
"In addition to the internal structural crisis, there are now massive foreign trade and security policy challenges for which we are not prepared." Germany must invest massively in European defense capacities in the short term and lead the way with France and other willing partners.
One thing is clear: the future of German politics is completely uncertain following the break-up of the traffic light coalition on Wednesday evening. Experts agree that Germany and Europe are facing troubled times.