Analysis of the Trump effect Is that it for climate protection?
Will Donald Trump's re-election stifle the last hope for international climate targets? Many are asking themselves this question at the climate summit. Now there is a calculation of the possible Trump effect.
15.11.2024, 00:00
dpa
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- Climate Action Tracker experts have calculated the impact of another Trump presidency on the fight against global warming.
- According to this, the USA could increase global warming by 0.04 degrees by the end of the century by changing its course.
- This forecast is based on the assumption that only the USA changes course and no other countries follow suit.
- The possible withdrawal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced by Joe Biden, an extensive investment program with a focus on climate protection, is significant.
According to a recent analysis, the re-election of Donald Trump as the next US president could measurably increase global warming. This is based on calculations by the Climate Action Tracker, which examines whether the climate policy of countries is compatible with international climate protection targets.
Trump announced his intention to clear the way for more oil and gas drilling. According to the New York Times, he is also preparing to withdraw the USA from the Paris climate protection agreement once again.
Effects on the global temperature
The experts at Climate Action Tracker have calculated that the USA could increase global warming by 0.04 degrees by the end of the century by changing its course. This forecast is based on the assumption that only the USA changes course and no other countries follow suit. A key factor is the possible withdrawal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced by Joe Biden, an extensive investment program with a focus on climate protection.
This additional 0.04 degrees would add to the 2.7 degrees that the world is currently heading for, even if all climate protection plans are adhered to. The authors of the analysis emphasize that this trajectory has not improved in the last three years, highlighting the discrepancy between the climate crisis reality and the political response to it.
Comparison with UN forecasts
The Climate Action Tracker's forecast is in line with a calculation by the United Nations, which estimates global warming at between 2.6 and 3.1 degrees. In such a scenario, according to climate researchers, significant parts of the earth would be uninhabitable.
Earlier this week, the US government's acting climate chief, John Podesta, expressed his concern that Trump could seek a drastic turnaround in climate policy as president. During his first term in office (2017-2021), Trump had already lowered environmental standards and halted numerous projects. On his initiative, the USA withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2020, which was reversed by his successor Joe Biden.
