Germany Is North Korea intervening in the Ukraine war?

The numerous reports of North Korean soldiers supporting Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine have not been officially confirmed. However, the leadership in Kiev is on high alert. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warns of a new level of escalation if North Koreans gain experience in modern warfare. Some questions and answers on the situation:

Why might Russia deploy North Korean soldiers in the Ukraine war?

So far, Moscow and Pyongyang have denied that North Korean soldiers are being prepared for a war deployment in Ukraine or in the Russian border region of Kursk. However, Russia and North Korea have agreed to provide mutual military assistance should one of them be attacked by the other. Because Ukraine invaded the Kursk border region at the beginning of August and occupied dozens of villages there, Moscow could exercise this option. The treaty on the all-encompassing strategic partnership between the two countries is to be ratified in the Duma this Thursday. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova emphasized that the military cooperation between the two countries does not violate any laws.

Moscow media have also already reported on North Koreans at the Russian Sergeyevka military training area on the border with China and North Korea. Experts in Moscow are also quoted as saying that a combat mission is possible, but that the impact on the war would be limited. They believe that Russia is only setting itself up for further complications. The international loss of face for Russia in admitting weakness would also be significant if it had to resort to foreign troops out of necessity in a war.

What would North Korea gain from this?

The North Korean military could be particularly interested in gaining direct combat experience in a modern large-scale war with the massive deployment of drones and long-range missiles. According to Ukrainian sources, North Korean experts have been active in the occupied eastern Ukrainian territory for some time, among other things in connection with allegedly supplied North Korean missile technology. Several North Koreans are said to have been killed in a Ukrainian missile strike at the beginning of October.

North Korea, which the USA is already accusing of supplying ammunition and weapons to Russia, could bind Moscow closer to it through further military aid and, above all, prepare for possible reciprocation in the future. In an interview with the British newspaper "The Economist", Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov claimed that, in addition to money, North Korea is interested in circumventing sanctions and obtaining Russian technologies for tactical nuclear weapons and submarine missile systems.

What does this mean for Ukraine?

According to the South Korean secret service, North Korea is said to have already sent a total of 3,000 soldiers to Russia, with a total of 10,000 to be sent by the end of December. In view of the large Russian contingent, this figure is unlikely to be significant. Russia is currently said to have 600,000 to 700,000 soldiers on combat duty in Ukraine and the Kursk border region. However, a North Korean intervention army of 100,000 men or more could lead to the collapse of the front, which the Ukrainians are already struggling to hold.

For Kiev, this danger provides additional arguments to demand similar steps from its Western allies. At the very least, a proposal already put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron to station Western troops along the Belarusian border, for example, in order to transfer Ukrainian units that have been freed up to the eastern front, is likely to gain new impetus.

How will the West react?

The West would see the intervention of North Korean soldiers in the war as a significant escalation with repercussions beyond Ukraine. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned of a "very, very serious problem" with consequences not only for Europe, but also for the already tense situation in the Indo-Pacific. However, he was not more specific. The Federal Foreign Office in Berlin also had clear words: "North Korea's support for the Russian war of aggression also poses a direct threat to Germany's security and the European peace order."

The ministry summoned the North Korean chargé d'affaires to express concern about the deployment of troops. The Western states are now trying to exert diplomatic pressure to persuade North Korea to refrain from military intervention. German Ambassador Alexander Graf Lambsdorff also protested against this development at the Russian Foreign Ministry.

What will the NATO states do if North Korea gets serious anyway?

That is unclear, and the means are limited. Numerous sanctions have already been imposed in the past due to North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and its support for Russia's war of aggression. A significant tightening is hardly possible. There would then still be the option of significantly increasing military support for Ukraine in return.

However, a NATO decision to deploy combat troops is currently considered out of the question because alliance members such as Germany and the USA fear that this could trigger a third world war. Ukrainian President Zelensky openly addressed this scenario at a press conference in Brussels last week. "This is the first step towards a world war", he said about a possible intervention by North Korea.

SDA