USA Harris vs Trump: final spurt before the fateful election

In the race for the White House, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are once again battling for votes in potentially decisive states.

Democrat Harris traveled to the important "swing state" of Pennsylvania for four appearances on Monday, while Republican Trump also traveled to North Carolina and Michigan, where a close race is also looming. It is the candidates' last chance to send a message to their voters before the presidency and the future balance of power in the US parliament are decided on Tuesday. It is also a fateful election for Germany and Europe.

As it is clear in the vast majority of states which party will secure victory there, Democrats and Republicans are concentrating their election campaign on the few "swing states" where the outcome is still open. Pennsylvania, where there are 19 electoral votes up for grabs - more than in any other key state - is seen as potentially decisive. In order to win, Harris or Trump must win at least 270 electoral votes from the 50 states. In polls, the current vice president and the former president are tied.

Enthusiastic supporters

In her speeches, Harris sent a message of unity to undecided voters and Republican supporters who may find Trump too extreme. "I don't consider people who disagree with me to be enemies," said the 60-year-old in the city of Allentown. She wants to find common ground - and solutions based on common sense. "We are fighting for our democracy right now," she called out to her supporters. The crowd chanted "We're not going back!" in reference to the first Trump presidency.

At almost the same time, the Republican's audience in the town of Reading, just 60 kilometers away, chanted: "Trump! Trump! Trump!" Among other things, the ex-president once again announced "the biggest deportation in history". The claim that the USA is being overrun by criminal migrants is a central point of his election campaign. Trump was certain that Pennsylvania would bring him victory. "I've been waiting four years for this day," said the 78-year-old. He lost the 2020 election to the current incumbent Joe Biden and was also defeated in Pennsylvania, but still does not acknowledge his defeat.

Contradictory messages

For days, Trump has been painting a picture of a nation in decline in long speeches with gloomy rhetoric that only he can save. Harris, on the other hand, is brief and specifically addresses voter groups such as GenZ, i.e. the under-30s, Latinos and people with Arab roots. In a recent speech, she did not mention Trump by name at all.

There is a lot at stake in Tuesday's vote. It is not only about the country's domestic political stability, but also about the future role of the USA in international alliances, transatlantic cooperation and how to deal with Russia's and China's striving for power - for example, Ukraine must fear for the important support of the USA in the war against Russia if Trump wins. Germany's and Europe's ties with the United States are huge in economic terms and even have existential dimensions in the area of defense.

Millions of voters have already voted

Voters in the USA can cast their votes in various ways, not just directly at the polling station on November 5. In some places, early voting was possible, and it was also possible to vote by post. Each state has its own rules for deadlines and proof of identity. The technology also varies - from traditional handwritten ballots to voting computers.

According to data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida, around 78 million voters had already voted early at the start of the week - i.e. by post or at the polling station. This figure corresponds to almost half of the total number of votes cast in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats usually score higher in early voting, but this time, according to the data, many Americans registered as Republicans also chose this route.

Results may not be known for days

The first polling stations on the east coast of the USA close at midnight German time. Unlike in Germany, there is no prediction of the winner of the election. And the counting can take a long time, not only because of the country's many time zones, but also because of the large number of postal votes.

Most experts assume that there will still be no winner on election night - but that is not impossible. In 2020, Joe Biden was only declared the winner on Saturday, i.e. on day four after the election date. In contrast, many Americans found out about Trump's victory in 2016 when they got up the morning after the election.

The election campaign was memorably turbulent this time: Originally, US President Joe Biden wanted to run again, but doubts about the 81-year-old's suitability for another term in office grew after the big TV duel with Trump at the latest. In July, Biden finally withdrew as a result of the growing pressure and left the field to Harris. Just days earlier, Trump had been wounded in the ear by an assassin's bullet at a rally. The picture of him bleeding and clenching his fist in the air went around the world.

Trump fuels fears of electoral fraud

As in 2020, Trump once again sowed doubts about the legitimacy of the election, spreading unsubstantiated allegations of fraud before the vote and claiming that his victory could only be taken away by manipulation. During a campaign appearance, he called the Democrats a "demonic party" and accused them of cheating in the presidential election.

Trump told ABC News that he expected the winner of the race for the White House to be decided on election night. Four years ago, he had already proclaimed himself the winner on election night - and called for a halt to the vote count when he was temporarily ahead of his challenger Biden. Above all, the majority of postal votes, which experience has shown to go to the Democrats, had not yet been fully counted at that time.

The magic number 270

The US President is elected indirectly by the people. The votes of the electors decide the composition of the Electoral College, which elects the president on their behalf in December. Each federal state has a certain number of votes, which is roughly based on the number of inhabitants.

The principle of "the winner takes it all" applies in almost all states: the candidate who wins there receives the votes of all the electors in the state. To enter the White House, a candidate ultimately does not need the most popular votes, but the majority of the 538 electoral votes - i.e. at least 270.

SDA