Politics Fateful election in Venezuela: is President Maduro finished?

With his distinctive moustache and a confident smile, Nicolás Maduro looks at the voter from the ballot paper. Venezuela's authoritarian president is at the top of the list because he has been nominated as a candidate by several parties - not just once, but 13 times. His main challenger, on the other hand, only appears three times. And yet the ex-diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia from the opposition alliance Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, who was largely unknown until recently, is considered to have a good chance of ousting Maduro from the presidential palace in this Sunday's election after eleven years in power.

The polls, some of which predict a clear victory for the challenger, should be treated with caution for the time being. However, many observers believe that the chances of a political change in Caracas are actually higher than they have been for a long time - perhaps higher than in 2019, when opposition politician Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president and was recognized by many countries. At the time, however, the military backed Maduro. The president simply sat out the crisis and Guaidó lost support.

Now the opposition is united and even once loyal government supporters are now disappointed with Maduro in view of the catastrophic economic situation.

Due to corruption, mismanagement and international sanctions, the country with the world's largest known oil reserves is in a severe economic crisis. Over 80 percent of the population live below the poverty line. There are repeated power cuts. Gas, medicines and gasoline are in short supply. More than seven million people - a quarter of the population - have left Venezuela in the last ten years due to poverty and violence.

The left-wing government is also cracking down on dissenters. Numerous members of the opposition have already been imprisoned or excluded from public office. The International Criminal Court in The Hague is investigating crimes against humanity in Venezuela.

Maduro warns of civil war

Maduro recently warned of a bloodbath and civil war if he is not re-elected. Several criminal groups with links to the government operate in the South American country. "The risk of something like this turning violent is therefore relatively high," says Latin America expert Günther Maihold from the Free University of Berlin. However, there have recently been calming tones, at least from those close to Maduro. "If Edmundo wins, we will concede and be the opposition," said his son Nicolás Maduro Guerra in an interview with the newspaper "El País".

International interest in change

The election in Venezuela is being followed with interest throughout Latin America and also in the USA. The mass emigration from the South American country is pushing many neighboring countries to their limits. If the sanctions against Venezuela are eased and the run-down oil industry is modernized, economic relations could blossom again. This should also benefit the regional security situation. The Maduro government is currently harbouring Colombian rebels and has recently stoked fears of war with its claims to the border region of Essequibo, which belongs to the neighboring country of Guyana.

Possible scenarios in the event of an opposition victory

Observers are not expecting a free and fair election in Venezuela on Sunday. Should opposition candidate González still win, several scenarios are conceivable according to Maihold, including the government annulling the election. "Maduro could organize electoral fraud, for example, which he would then uncover himself," says the political scientist. It is also conceivable that the military could intervene and prevent a change of power. A third scenario would be negotiations between the government and the opposition, for example on impunity for current government employees or a gradual transfer of power.

A radical turnaround in Venezuela is unlikely even if the opposition wins. The parliament will continue to be dominated by the socialist ruling party PSUV even after the elected president takes office in January 2025. In addition, Maduro has filled all key positions in the authorities, state-owned companies and the media with loyal followers.

Nevertheless, opposition politician Guaidó believes in change. However, it is crucial that the armed forces "respect the people's expression of opinion" and do not intervene, he told CNN.

SDA