Expert calls for rearmament "Europe is like the 49-year-old who still lives with his parents"

Political scientist Carlo Masala warns his German compatriots in no uncertain terms to invest more in national, European and Ukrainian security - and also says how this could be achieved.

The incoming German government must face "fundamental challenges in foreign and security policy", warns Carlo Masala on the Bundeswehr's YouTube channel.

Three factors will influence the situation, explains the political scientist from the Bundeswehr University in Munich: the changing transatlantic relationship under Donald Trump, the threat from Russia and China's efforts to gain global influence. The new coalition in Berlin must position itself on these issues.

However, a basic prerequisite for this is "sustainable financing of the armed forces" and a "solution to the personnel problems", explains the 56-year-old. This must go hand in hand with a "mental change in Germany": it is now up to politicians to explain to the population "why it is so important that we have to reposition ourselves".

"If the population doesn't go along with this, it will be difficult"

Masala warns: "If the population does not go along with this, it will be difficult to respond to precisely these fundamental challenges." He urges haste: "We don't have time to get bogged down in tactical games," says the man from Cologne, referring to the formation of the government in Berlin. There are also important international summits coming up: "We can't wait until early summer."

Financing the Bundeswehr and Ukraine will swallow up "huge sums". "I don't think one instrument alone is enough": increasing the defense budget alone is unlikely to be enough, believes Masala. A constitutional amendment to relax the debt brake is not feasible due to the new balance of power in the Bundestag - keyword: blocking minority.

However, the incoming government could declare an emergency situation that could be justified not only by the war in Ukraine, but also by the change in transatlantic relations. Masala also brings into play a "solidarity surcharge for defense" for five to six years, which could benefit not only the army but also civil defense, homeland security and cyber security.

"It's time to move out"

Is Trump's political U-turn a wake-up call? "Europe is like the 49-year-old who still lives with his parents, but earns a good living and still lets his parents do the washing and cooking. In other words, it's time to move out without cutting off contact with your parents."

Actions are now needed instead of words: "Every five years we talk about having understood the wake-up call," says Masala with annoyance and warns: "We don't have much time. What we need now is a broad coalition of European states that is open to non-EU states [such as] the UK and, if necessary, Turkey."

This coalition would have to work out a "concrete timetable" that would determine "when which capabilities would be procured where" and how the whole thing would be financed. Masala does not consider a European army to be realistic, but it is not a question of haggling over concepts, but of acting quickly.

"Abstruse" demand for elections in Kiev

With regard to the negotiations between the USA and Russia, Masala believes that Kiev "will not accept a dictated peace". How long Ukraine could hold out would also depend on the commitment of the Europeans. Trump calling Zelensky a dictator is a "perpetrator-victim reversal", which Washington justifies with the fact that Kiev is not holding elections.

This is "abstruse", says Masala: "There is a war going on. What do you do with the Ukrainians who have fled? How are the hundreds of thousands of soldiers lying in the trenches supposed to vote? What do you do with the Ukrainians living in the Russian-occupied territories? It is a state of emergency in which elections make no sense at all."

Even the German constitution does not provide for elections in the event of war, the political scientist reminds us: "The demand is more or less unrealistic." However, with his announcement to end the war in Ukraine immediately, Trump has put himself under pressure domestically, says Masala. The promise to deliver puts the White House in a bad position in the political poker game with the Kremlin.

US focus on Asia - Europe needs guarantees

"Trump wants a result as quickly as possible. Russia doesn't need a result as quickly as possible. Putin can afford to negotiate until he gets what he wants. And if he doesn't get what he wants, Russia can also afford to break off the negotiations and continue the war," explains Masala.

The fact that the USA is determined to end the war in Eastern Europe is also due to the fact that Trump's administration "wants to put all its weight on Asia", says Masala: "China is the big challenge. They also need the resources they have here in Europe. They would like to withdraw and relocate that."

Masala estimates that Kiev could hold out for "another year or so" if the USA stops providing arms aid to Ukraine. The German believes that European troops securing the border in Ukraine is only realistic if Washington guarantees their security. That is the "be-all and end-all" for such a solution.

Germany would then also have to make its contribution: "This war is also our war," Masala emphasizes. "We are the leading European power and we have to make a contribution." The coming months and years will have to show whether NATO can still be relied upon.