Interview with USA experts "Donald Trump is not particularly strong as a candidate"
With Joe Biden's withdrawal, the Democrats are facing a challenge: Who can beat Donald Trump in the presidential election campaign? blue News spoke with USA experts Sarah Wagner and Prof. Dr. James Davis about the upcoming developments.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- Biden's decision not to run again changes the 2024 primary dynamics.
- Harris' chances of success are crucial for the Democratic campaign.
- Sarah Wagner and James W. Davis emphasize mobilizing voter groups and pointing out Trump's weaknesses.
- To win, Democrats must offer alternatives to Trump, lower the cost of living and appeal to young voters and minorities.
Sarah Wagner, M.A.
The research of the political scientist and deputy director of the Atlantic Academy Rhineland-Palatinate focuses on American domestic politics, especially the Democratic Party, as well as transatlantic relations.
President Joe Biden's decision not to run again has changed the dynamic in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. The Democratic Party must now join forces to put forward a strong candidate who can stand up to Republican challenger Donald Trump. At the center of these considerations is Vice President Kamala Harris, whose chances of success and challenges will be decisive in the coming months.
Who can beat Trump? Was Kamala Harris really as bad as she is often portrayed? And what strategy should the Democrats now take into the coming months?
Prof. Dr. James W. Davis
The research area of the Chair of International Relations at the University of St. Gallen includes theories of international politics, global security policy, foreign policy analysis and the role of political power in general.
blue News spoke with US experts Sarah Wagner, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Academy Rhineland-Palatinate, and Prof. Dr. James W. Davis, Chair of International Relations at the University of St. Gallen, about the upcoming developments in American politics.
How can the Democrats defeat Donald Trump?
Sarah Wagner: The Democrats must manage to mobilize their voters and enough swing voters. Especially in the important swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, it will be important to get many people to vote.
James Davis: Donald Trump is not particularly strong as a candidate. He has grown older and is showing weaknesses. So far he's only just ahead of Joe Biden. The Democrats can defeat him if they remind the electorate how chaotic it was under his leadership, both in foreign policy and domestic policy. Trump's leadership during the Covid-19 pandemic and his economic policies have been weak. Under Biden's presidency, America is doing much better. The Democrats' problem is that they lacked the right person to convey the good news convincingly.
Who could do this best?
Wagner: The candidate must appeal to different groups of voters and, due to the short time until the election date, make many appearances to reintroduce themselves to voters and convince them to vote for the Democrats. As the Democratic Party's voter base is very heterogeneous, this is a challenge for any candidate. The party now seems to be lining up behind Kamala Harris and hopes she can fulfill those expectations.
Davis: A year ago, we would have seen many possible successors to Joe Biden, such as the governor of Michigan or the governor of California. Now the election is only three and a half months away. The Democrats need a candidate with an existing organization, financial resources and national experience. That's where I see Kamala Harris. I am convinced she is better than her reputation, but she also has some weaknesses: She is progressive and from California, which is hard for many swing voters to accept. She therefore needs a vice president who will bring balance to the ballot - probably a moderate, ideally a governor. There are quite a few of them.
What political successes can Kamala Harris boast? Is the criticism of her justified?
Wagner: Kamala Harris has strengths and weaknesses, but for the Democratic Party she now offers the chance to reshape the election campaign. She has failed to fulfill many hopes in her role as vice president, with her poll numbers hovering around 40 percent since mid-2021. She had difficult political issues such as immigration and electoral legislation in her portfolio and has made some public blunders that have been heavily criticized. At the same time, she appears to be a mobilizing factor for young voters, women and Black Americans.
Davis: As Vice President, Kamala Harris has a thankless job. If she succeeds, the president gets the credit. If she fails, she gets the blame. In this tradition, Biden gave Harris the problem of illegal immigration at the Mexican border - a problem that has remained unsolved for at least twenty years and which neither Bush, Obama, Trump nor Biden have been able to tackle.
This mortgage weighs heavily on Harris. Nevertheless, she has shown her strengths, particularly in foreign policy. She has represented the administration in important international forums and acted convincingly. She has developed a strong profile on the issue of "reproductive freedom": She emphasizes the right of women to make their own decisions about pregnancies. She was extremely successful with this, particularly because Biden, as a devout Catholic, was reticent in this area.
What does it mean for Kamala Harris that Barack Obama does not support her?
Davis: There was a clear choreography behind the scenes in which Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama played a role. You can therefore say that Harris owes her chance to former President Obama. In the case of Biden's previous candidacy, Obama did not immediately support him either, as he wanted to remain neutral as former president until an official nomination was made. So this stance by Obama is not new.
What challenges do the Democrats now face in mobilizing their voter base?
Wagner: In 2020, Joe Biden managed to significantly improve the Democrats' performance among the white working class, especially among men, compared to 2016. This group of voters is hugely relevant in key swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Joe Biden also performed better among older voters than Hillary Clinton. The question will be whether a new candidate can do the same.
Davis: After the debate debacle, I said that a change could unleash incredible energy in the Democratic Party. We're seeing that now: In the first 24 hours after Biden's resignation, there were 50 million in donations to Harris, all from small donors*. That shows that the mobilization has begun. My previously unenthusiastic nieces and nephews are now totally motivated as they no longer have to imagine giving their vote to someone as old as their grandparents.
And what strategic adjustments can we expect from the Republicans?
Wagner: The Republicans will try to continue to associate Kamala Harris with Joe Biden and pass the accusations against Biden's policies on to her. There will also be increased accusations that Harris has not been honest with the US public about the state of Joe Biden. In addition, the Republican Party (RP) will portray her as too far to the left politically, especially on the issue of immigration.
Davis: They will surely attack the Democratic Party and argue that the nomination process is corrupt. Senator Marco Rubio from Florida is already claiming that the Democrats organized a coup, which of course is not true. And they will be quick to attack the nominee. They've done a lot of research on Harris and will pull out things she once said that might now seem unwise.
What issues can the Democrats use to win over new voters?
Wagner: The Democrats will continue to focus on the issues of defending democracy, abortion rights and the economic situation. Opposition to Donald Trump will also remain a factor that could mobilize the party.
Davis: They will try to point out the radical positions of the Republicans. Donald Trump's party is a very extreme party whose positions can harm Americans. For example, the high tariffs on imports from China, which will cost average families 2,000 to 3,000 dollars more per year. Also Trump's plan to repeal Obamacare, even though millions benefit from it, and his stance on abortions and same-sex marriage, which have long been accepted by many Americans, including traditional ones. Democrats need to clarify these unpopular Trump positions and offer alternatives. They must show how they intend to reduce the high cost of living, healthcare costs and real estate prices.
How could progressive and moderate wings within the Democratic Party influence the future direction?
Wagner: So far, there are no major differences within the party. Many progressive politicians have already spoken out in favor of Harris, and the party's focus is currently on the election campaign and showing unity. The progressive wing around Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has long supported Biden and has now quickly thrown its support behind Kamala Harris.
Davis: One argument in Biden's favor was his ability to unite the different wings of the party. Traditional Democratic voters, including the majority of Jewish citizens, are pro-Israel, for example, while progressives support the Free Palestine Movement and criticize Biden's support for Israel. How do you bridge these tensions? There are also differences on climate policy: Traditional voters* support moderate measures, while progressives demand stricter laws. Biden was able to bridge these gaps. Can Harris do the same, even though she comes from the progressive wing?
What impact will Biden's withdrawal have on the congressional elections?
Davis: It will help the Democrats. There has been a growing trend in recent years that fewer and fewer voters are splitting their votes between candidates from different parties. In the past, more people voted for a Republican mayor or a Democratic congressman. Today, they are more inclined to support only one party. As Biden has increasingly lost support, other party candidates have been dragged down. If they can find someone who gets more approval, that will help.
How can the Democrats mobilize young voters and minority groups?
Wagner: For young people, Biden's age was a point of criticism, so a new dynamic is now possible. The campaign needs to reach out to these voters and offer them a concrete alternative to Trump. Issues such as the high cost of living, climate change, gun violence and Middle East policy will be important to young voters.
Davis: There is a risk of losing minority women voters if Kamala Harris is not nominated. Black women, who are among the Democrats' most loyal supporters, could be upset. Young voters who were demotivated could be attracted back by Harris, especially as she belongs to the more progressive side and is younger than Trump. This feels like a generational shift, as Trump is the oldest candidate ever nominated. Other important issues for young voters are the high level of debt after graduation and the expensive cost of education in America.
