Old-age provision Confederation expects 2.5 billion less AHV expenditure in 2033

Following the calculation error, the federal government has corrected the assumed AHV expenditure in 2033 downwards by CHF 2.5 billion. The initial assumption was 4 billion less. According to the latest forecast for 2033, the AHV will spend CHF 69 billion.

The Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO) acknowledged the two calculation errors in the AHV financial outlook in August. They had led to implausibly high AHV expenditure in the longer-term forecasts.

In the latest financial outlook, the FSIO is now assuming a downward correction of CHF 2.5 billion, as it announced on Monday. Originally, it had assumed around CHF 4 billion or a deviation of 6 percent.

In Monday's forecast, the FSIO is still expecting a deviation of 3.6 percent and thus a real reduction in AHV expenditure of CHF 2.5 billion. It now puts this at CHF 69 billion for 2033. The data was calculated on the basis of two alternative calculation models developed by the FSIO since June.

The Federal Office's forecast is therefore midway between the findings of the two research institutes commissioned by the FSIO to validate its forecasts. According to the information provided, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute of the ETH assumes AHV expenditure of CHF 70 to 72 billion for 2033, while the Demografik Institute assumes CHF 68 to 70 billion.

The errors were discovered by the FSIO during inspection work in connection with the 13th AHV pension. The Federal Supreme Court has to rule on two appeals in connection with the vote on the OASI reform with the increase in the retirement age for women in 2022. The complainants claim that the figures stated in the voting booklet and based on the incorrect forecast were misleading.

The AHV is the foundation of Swiss old-age provision. More than 2.5 million pensioners currently receive an AHV pension.

SDA