Negotiating poker with Islamists Can Russia keep its military bases in Syria?
The Kremlin is negotiating with the new rulers in Syria. German military experts believe it is about withdrawing troops. Bloomberg, on the other hand, reports that Moscow can probably keep its bases.
13.12.2024, 13:02
13.12.2024, 13:21
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- Russia is in contact with the new Syrian leadership.
- German military experts believe this is about the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria.
- "Bloomberg", on the other hand, reports that the Kremlin is close to negotiating that Moscow can keep its bases.
- The bases are Vladimir Putin's hubs for Russian activities in Africa, according to the Bundeswehr.
According to an internal German military analysis, Russia is making all the necessary preparations for a complete evacuation of its military bases in Syria. The Russian Mediterranean convoy has already left the Syrian port of Tartus, according to a Defense Ministry memo obtained by the German Press Agency.
Security guarantees given by the new rulers in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad probably only refer to the withdrawal of Russian forces "and not to their permanent whereabouts". "Bloomberg", on the other hand, reports that Moscow is on the verge of reaching an agreement with the new rulers on where they will remain.
According to the report, the Kremlin wants to keep two bases in Syria: Russia has reportedly reached an agreement with Haiʾat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS), even if the whole thing is not yet official. However, "Bloomberg" is using anonymous sources: Verification is impossible.
Russian hub for Africa disrupted
According to the German analysis, the military airport in Latakia, Syria - like the port of Tartus to date - is used by Russia to maintain a hub in Libya to supply Russian forces in Africa.
The loss of the Latakia airfield would probably lead to an impairment of air transports from Russia to Libya, as the planes would be able to carry less material due to the longer flight route.
As a result, air transports of heavy goods without a stopover would only be possible if Turkish transit permits were still available. "These are viewed critically in NATO," the note states.
It is likely that the loss of the Russian bases in Syria would affect Russia's logistical processes "to and from Africa, at least in the short to medium term, and that heavy material transports would be more limited".
Transportation and resupply of weapons hampered
However, the current level of military engagement in Africa "will not be significantly impaired in principle". The Syrian port of Tartus has so far been the only base permanently available to Russia in the eastern Mediterranean.
Its loss will probably have a negative strategic impact on Russia's reliable military presence in the eastern Mediterranean.
Material transports and the resupply of fired weapons would only be possible under certain conditions or not at all. It also states that without an agreement with the new Syrian rulers, Russia will probably only be able to maintain a "limited maritime presence in the Mediterranean".
