Assassination attempt on Trump An ugly election campaign gets even uglier - but was this the preliminary decision?
Will the failed assassination attempt help Donald Trump win the election? Many now see him at an even greater advantage. However, some see the discussion about gun violence as a problem for the challenger's camp.
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- The images of Trump immediately after the failed attack on him as a fighter brimming with determination and resilience.
- The Democrats will have to cease their attacks on challenger Joe Biden for the time being and will presumably have to dose them for even longer.
- Trump's supporters, on the other hand, are not holding back with accusations against President Biden's camp.
- History shows a split picture: President Reagan's popularity rose after an attack on him. Theodore Roosevelt, on the other hand, lost the election even though he gave a speech bleeding after shots were fired at him.
The picture became iconic just hours after it was published: with blood on his face, Donald Trump looks towards the camera and raises his fist. "Fight, fight, fight!", he is said to have instructed his supporters and staff. The image is very likely to become a symbol of the 2024 US presidential election, and an ugly race for the highest office in the land has become even uglier.
The question many are now asking themselves: How will the Trump shooting affect the campaign and the outcome of the election on November 5?
In the hours following the assassination, the attack on Republican President Reagan in 1981 is most frequently cited as a historical parallel. However, he was already in office at the time - having defeated the Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter in the elections. The proportion of people who approved of his policies rose from 60 percent- already a high figure - to 68 percent.
President Reagan as a historical role model
Reagan spent 12 days in hospital after being shot in the arm, ribs and lungs. The assassination helped the Republican to push through his radical economic policy reforms against the Democrat-dominated Congress, writes a book author on CNN.
The image of Trump, who shows fighting spirit even when wounded, sets him even more apart from President Biden, whose weaknesses, infirmities and failures have been the focus of media coverage of him since the TV debate.
Shortly after the attack on Donald Trump, the Biden campaign announced that it was "pausing all outbound communications" and stopping TV ads as soon as possible. The intention is clear: harsh accusations directed at Trump should not give the impression that the Republican camp supports the attack in any way.
Biden also spoke to Trump on the phone to express his sympathy, while various other influential Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi and Barrack Obama publicly expressed their horror at the violence against candidate Trump.
"He has just won the election"
Meanwhile, Derrick Van Orden, representative of the state of Wisconsin, is certain in "Politico" magazine: "President Trump survived this attack - he just wonthe election".
The attack puts the Democrats even deeper on the defensive. They will have to cease their attacks on Trump for the time being and will probably have to dose them for longer. Meanwhile, Republicans can argue that the Biden campaign created the mood that led to violence against their candidate. Some did so before it was known that the shooter was close to the Republican Party. But this news has not changed the positions so far.
Mike Collins, Congressman from the state of Georgia, for example, writes on X: "Biden gave the order". Mike Lee, Senator from Utah, demands that all lawsuits against Trump be dropped. Senator JD Vance from Ohio, who is being touted as a possible Trump running mate, writes on X: "The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs."
Trump himself thanks the secret service and expresses his condolences to the relatives of the fatally shot visitor to his campaign event. He has been noticeably reserved in the weeks since the TV debate. Even now, he is not reacting impulsively, as we are used to seeing from him. He leaves the sharp votes to others.
Gun rights: the Republicans' Achilles heel
Only one controversial issue in connection with the assassination could have a negative impact on Trump's election campaign: gun rights. Trump is the candidate of those who demand the freest possible access to weapons. James Alan Fox, Professor of Criminology at Northeastern University in Boston, expects this incident to make gun violence one of the main issues in Trump's election campaign.
One of the mechanisms of US politics is that stricter rules are demanded after high-profile crimes involving firearms. These are a concern of the Democrats, while Republicans are critical of them and point to the Second Amendment, which guarantees the right of people in the USA to own and bear arms.
Another Northeastern University professor, political scientist Costas Panagopoulos, says on the university's news site that the assassination could hurt Trump"because many believe he has stoked the fires of political violence and division for political advantage and exacerbated polarization in America with inflammatory rhetoric."
President Reagan's press secretary, James Brady, was hit in the head when the president was assassinated and was left partially paralyzed. He became an important advocate for stricter gun laws. The "Brady Bill" prohibits people who have been convicted of various crimes from owning or carrying handguns. Called the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, it was signed into law under Democratic President Bill Clinton in 1993.
Failed assassination attempt does not guarantee an election
Finally, there is a historical example of how a political assassination attempt does not guarantee an election victory: Theodore Roosevelt was hit by a bullet just before a campaign speech in 1912. His steel spectacle case and the 50-page manuscript of his speech stopped the bullet, so that it lodged in his chest but did not seriously injure him. Roosevelt refused to cancel the event and then gave a 90-minute speech while his shirt soaked with blood.
Despite this impressive demonstration of determination and resilience, Roosevelt lost the presidential election to Woodrow Wilson.
Nevertheless, there is no one in the current reporting and classification who sees Biden's chances of re-election increasing after the attack on Trump.
