Israel After pager attacks: Waiting for Hezbollah's reaction

Following an apparently coordinated attack on Hezbollah technical equipment that left at least 32 dead and more than 3,000 injured, there are fears of a major attack by the Lebanese militia on Israel.

Following the explosions of hundreds of pagers and radios, behind which military and intelligence experts suspect Israel, Hezbollah could once again attack targets in the hostile neighboring country.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was due to give a speech in the evening. The militia confirmed 32 deaths in its own ranks since the pager explosions on Tuesday, but did not specify the cause of death. Israel has not yet commented on the explosions in the neighboring country.

Hezbollah has been attacking targets in Israel since the beginning of the Gaza war almost a year ago, according to its own statement out of solidarity with the Islamist Hamas. It does not want to stop the attacks until there is a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. The almost daily shelling has developed into a low-threshold war. Around 600 people have been killed in Lebanon, most of them Hezbollah members.

"Moderate retaliation" by Hezbollah against Israel

In the event of a possible major attack by Hezbollah on Israel, the militia's senior leadership would opt for "moderate retaliation", said David Wood, Lebanon expert at Crisis Group. "This stance is consistent with Hezbollah's tried and tested approach: maintain pressure on Israel until there is a ceasefire in Gaza, while minimizing the risks of a full-scale war in Lebanon."

Hezbollah - the strongest non-state actor in the region with an estimated 150,000 rockets - is once again faced with a dilemma when choosing its response. It wants to maintain the principle of deterrence against its arch-enemy Israel, but is not capable of an attack as complex as exploding pagers and radios.

It could therefore be weeks before it launches what it considers to be an appropriate attack on Israel. It did not react militarily to the killing of its military commander Fuad Shukr until around a month later.

Founded in the 1980s, Hezbollah ("Party of God") has over 100,000 members according to its Secretary General Nasrallah. Other estimates, however, speak of half as many fighters. It has great political and economic influence.

However, Hezbollah wants to avoid another major war with Israel like the last one in 2006. The majority of Lebanese view Hezbollah's political power in the small Mediterranean country with displeasure.

Israel shifts focus of war

Israel's defense minister announced a "new phase" of the war. "The focus is shifting to the north," said Joav Galant. "We are providing forces, resources and energy for the northern area".

Galant's office announced that he had also spoken to his US counterpart Lloyd Austin during the night about the operations in the south and north. The focus was on defense against the Hezbollah threat in northern Israel.

According to reports, the Israeli army also moved a unit that had been deployed in the Gaza Strip for months to the border with Lebanon. According to Israeli media, it is said to consist of around 10,000 to 20,000 soldiers. The unit was withdrawn from the city of Chan Junis at the end of August.

In the Gaza Strip, the news about the shift in the Israeli focus of the war triggered skepticism. Israel's army is still continuing its operations in the coastal area, residents told the German Press Agency.

According to the Hamas-controlled health authority, many Palestinians are still being killed. People in the Gaza Strip say they hope that the military will not only reduce the fighting, but end it completely.

Israeli government under pressure at home

Recently, Israel's security cabinet set another war goal in addition to the liberation of hostages from the Gaza Strip and the destruction of Hamas: the return of Israeli citizens who have fled to the border area.

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), around 110,000 people have fled the Lebanese border region since the almost daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah began. According to government figures, the number on the Israeli side is around 60,000.

In Israel, pressure is growing on the leadership to allow the residents to return to the north. Many Israelis perceive the ongoing shelling from the neighboring country, which is also causing repeated casualties in Israel, as intolerable. Parts of Israel are no longer habitable, their country has practically shrunk, people in Tel Aviv say.

No agreement in sight in the Gaza war

An agreement with Hamas on an end to the Gaza war has long been seen as the key to pacifying the conflict in northern Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon says it is acting in solidarity with Hamas and does not want to suspend its attacks on Israel until a ceasefire is reached in the Gaza Strip.

As a deal with Hamas has not been reached for months, Israel wants to use military and diplomatic pressure to ensure that Hezbollah withdraws behind the Litani River, 30 kilometers from the border - as stipulated by a UN resolution.

There are reportedly differences of opinion within the political and security leadership in Israel as to whether a major military operation in Lebanon, perhaps including ground troops, would serve this goal.

There are also differing views in Israel about the presumably coordinated attack on the communications equipment used by Hezbollah, which is attributed to Israel. Some observers praise the explosion of the devices as a warning message to Hezbollah, because it increases the pressure to reach an agreement with Israel independently of the Gaza war.

Others take a critical view. According to Israeli media quoting high-ranking Israeli defense officials, this would not help the residents of the border area. Instead, there is a danger that the conflict could escalate and affect many more people in the future.

Concerns about further coordinated attacks

In Lebanon, there was concern about further attacks following the waves of explosions on Tuesday and Wednesday. With immediate effect, travelers are no longer allowed to take pagers or radios known as walkie-talkies on board aircraft. The devices will be confiscated at the airport, the Civil Aviation Authority announced.

People in Beirut and other parts of the country where the explosions occurred told the newspaper "L'Orient Le Jour" of horrific scenes. "I saw puddles of blood everywhere, fingers and hand fragments on the ground," said one. Another reported "fingertips, torn clothes and organs on the ground". A woman in the south told the newspaper that the attack was an "attack on the whole of Lebanon".

SDA