Public finances Confederation with continuous structural deficits until 2028

The Confederation expects a deficit of around CHF 2.3 billion for 2028. In the short term, the Federal Finance Administration (FFA) is forecasting a surplus of CHF 4.6 billion for the public sector.

This corresponds to a decline of CHF 2.7 billion for the state as a whole compared to the previous year, the FFA announced in its forecast for public finances. The main reasons for the deficits are the discontinuation of the Swiss National Bank's distribution to the Confederation and cantons as well as increased expenditure growth at cantonal level.

For the current year, a financing deficit of more than one billion francs is expected for the Confederation, it added. The growth in expenditure will mainly be driven by the AHV 21 reform, demographic developments and military expenditure. In 2025, the Confederation is likely to have a financing deficit of CHF 700 million. The main reason for this is budgeted expenditure in connection with Ukraine of around CHF 1.3 billion.

The deficit of CHF 2.3 billion in 2028 will in turn be caused by rising expenditure for the AHV and the army, the FFA continued. The introduction of the 13th AHV will lead to additional expenditure of around four billion francs for social insurance from 2026.

The cantons are likely to achieve stable surpluses of up to CHF 1.3 billion between 2025 and 2028. For the municipalities, the FFA expects financing results in 2028 to return to pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels with a deficit of around CHF 500 million.

SDA