Climate change Copernicus: 2024 likely to be the warmest year in history
The current year is heading for a new temperature record: 2024 will almost certainly be the warmest year globally since records began.
09.12.2024, 04:57
SDA
It is also likely to be the first year in which it is on average more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average. This was reported by the EU climate change service Copernicus on Monday. Copernicus relies on a data set based on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, airplanes and weather stations around the world. The US climate agency NOAA recently also believed that 2024 was likely to be a record year.
Even if the year as a whole ends up being around 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850 to 1900): The Paris 1.5 degree target for containing the climate crisis is therefore not yet considered to have been missed. Instead, we are looking at longer-term average values.
Second warmest November in history
Copernicus also announced that November 2024 was the second warmest November worldwide. The global surface temperature averaged 14.1 degrees Celsius.
"With Copernicus data from the penultimate month of the year, we can now confirm with reasonable certainty that 2024 will be the warmest year on record (...)", summarizes Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, in the press release. Ambitious climate protection measures are more urgent than ever.
Greenhouse gases as the main reason for rising temperatures
Man-made greenhouse gases are considered to be the main reason for the rise in temperatures. There have also been other effects recently: the current increase in solar activity, the El Niño weather phenomenon, volcanic activity and less particulate matter over the oceans.
In addition, German researchers have just come to the conclusion that there are fewer clouds at low altitudes, which cool the climate. This explains the jump in temperature from 2022 to 2023 and 2024. The causes behind this are not yet entirely clear, but could be manifold. It is possible that global warming itself is one reason for the lower cloud cover.
According to Copernicus, a look at different regions of the world reveals a differentiated picture for November: the average temperature over mainland Europe was 5.14 degrees Celsius. This means that November 2024 was not one of the ten warmest November months in Europe.
South-eastern Europe below average
Overall, temperatures were above average in northern Russia and over north-eastern and south-western Europe, but below average in south-eastern Europe.
Outside Europe, it was warmer than average in eastern Canada, central and eastern USA, most of Mexico, Morocco, northwest Africa, China, Pakistan, most of Siberia and Australia in November 2024. By contrast, temperatures would have been significantly below average in the west of the USA, parts of North Africa, the far east of Russia and most of Antarctica.
Rainfall ranging from below to above average
Copernicus also looked at global precipitation in November 2024: These had been below average in large parts of western and central Europe, in the southwest of the USA, in Mexico, Chile and Brazil, in the Horn of Africa, in parts of Central Asia, in south-eastern China and in southern Africa. There were also droughts in several regions of North and South America.
In contrast, above-average precipitation was recorded in western Iceland, southern Great Britain, northern Scandinavia, the southern Balkans and Greece, as well as in eastern Spain and large parts of eastern Europe. It was also too wet in many regions of the USA, in large parts of Australia and South America, in Central Asia and in the easternmost part of China. In the western Pacific, typhoons caused heavy rainfall and damage, particularly in the Philippines.
Arctic sea ice with third-lowest monthly extent
According to Copernicus, Arctic sea ice reached its third-lowest monthly extent in November 2024 and was nine percent below average.
In the Antarctic, the sea ice extent reached its lowest monthly value and was ten percent below average. "This slightly exceeded the 2016 and 2023 values and continued a series of historically large negative anomalies from 2023 and 2024," according to the statement.
