Politics Projection: FPÖ wins parliamentary election in Austria

According to projections, the right-wing FPÖ has become the strongest political force in a parliamentary election in Austria for the first time. The right-wing populists received 29.1 percent of the vote, putting them well ahead of the conservative ÖVP chancellor's party, according to data commissioned by ORF. For the FPÖ, this means an increase of 13 percentage points compared to 2019.

According to the data, the conservative ÖVP of Chancellor Karl Nehammer received 26.2 percent (minus 11.2 percentage points). According to projections, 20.4 percent of voters voted for the social democratic SPÖ. This puts the SPÖ in the region of its record low of 21.2 percent from 2019. According to the data, the Greens can expect 8.6 percent (minus 5.3 percentage points), the liberal Neos with 8.8 percent - that would be a small plus. The projection by the Foresight Institute was commissioned by the broadcaster ORF.

The Beer Party and the communist KPÖ are expected to fail at the four percent hurdle. A total of almost 6.4 million citizens were called to vote for a new parliament. The country was last governed by a coalition of the ÖVP and the Greens.

The FPÖ's significant gains are in line with the right-wing trend across Europe. Right-wing parties have gained popularity across Europe, such as Geert Wilders and his radical right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Netherlands, the Italian right-wing party Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy) led by Giorgia Meloni and the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) with Marine Le Pen in France. In Germany, the AfD achieved major successes in the state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg.

FPÖ victory would be biggest triumph to date

For the right-wing populists under their party leader Herbert Kickl, victory in the National Council elections would be their greatest triumph to date. The ÖVP had hoped until the very end to overtake the FPÖ on the home straight. Chancellor Nehammer tried to position himself as a responsible alternative to Kickl.

In its election manifesto, the FPÖ had campaigned for an extremely restrictive migration policy under the slogan "Fortress Austria - Fortress Freedom". The party calls for migrants to be returned to their home countries and wants "homogeneity" in society as an alternative to the diversity often sought internationally. In terms of foreign policy, the FPÖ is extremely critical of the EU. Despite the war in Ukraine, it takes a rather benevolent stance towards Russia and sees no problem with Austria's dependence on Russian gas.

High hurdles ahead of Kickl's chancellorship

Despite the victory, it is likely to be very difficult for Kickl to become the next chancellor. All parties have so far refused to cooperate with the 55-year-old, under whose aegis the FPÖ, for example, has given up its former distance to the Identitarians, who are classified as right-wing extremists. Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen does not necessarily have to entrust the task of forming a government to the party with the most votes. The former Green Party leader has repeatedly made clear his criticism of the FPÖ's political positions on the EU and migration.

It is therefore likely that Chancellor Nehammer will be given the task of forging a coalition government. Although the ÖVP sees the FPÖ as a suitable coalition partner in terms of content, the head of government has repeatedly and emphatically made it clear that he rules out working with Kickl. "Kickl is not in a position to bear government responsibility." Nehammer had also announced that he would not enter into coalition negotiations with the FPÖ leader.

The alternative to the FPÖ is the SPÖ. However, an alliance is considered difficult because SPÖ leader Andreas Babler has moved the Social Democrats far to the left with demands such as a 32-hour working week. Whether Babler will be able to stay in office in view of the result is one of the questions that will now arise.

SDA