Espionage, sabotage, propaganda BND warns Putin: hybrid war could trigger NATO alliance case

The Federal Intelligence Service sees increasing hybrid attacks by Russia on Germany and NATO. President Vladimir Putin also wants to test NATO's willingness to join forces, the BND believes.

The head of the German foreign intelligence service BND warns that Vladimir Putin's attempts to manipulate the West could trigger a war. "The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will end up considering invoking its mutual defense clause under Article 5," Bruno Kahl is quoted as saying.

At an event organized by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin, the 62-year-old warned of increasing Russian attacks on Germany and NATO. Moscow's willingness to escalate further in this area had reached an unprecedentedly high level. A further escalation of the situation is likely.

With the growth of Russia's military potential, "a direct military confrontation with NATO is becoming a possible option for the Kremlin". Russia's armed forces would probably be in a position to launch an attack against NATO from the end of the decade, both in terms of personnel and material.

But what are the hybrid measures on the table? Here is an overview of the current hotspots.

Sweden's prime minister first meets with representatives of the northern European and Baltic states - and then declares the Baltic Sea a "high-risk" zone in the Guardian. At the same time, however, Ulf Kristersson decidedly does not want to speculate on who is behind the recent breakage of two data cables in the Baltic Sea.

Internet cables and satellites targetedAsymmetric retaliation against the West?

It's a prankster who associates his statement with the current incident: the culprit could be the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3, whose position data matches the damage to the cables that was discovered on November 17 and 18 remarkably precisely. The bulk carrier has been anchored in the Kattegat since November 19.

A look at the MarineTraffic database shows that the Europeans are suspicious: the Yi Peng 3 is under surveillance by both the Danish and German authorities. The Bad Düben, a patrol boat of the German Federal Police, is on site, as is the P525 Rota of the Royal Danish Navy. Finnish authorities are also investigating the matter.

According to Reuters, Stockholm would like the Yi Peng 3 to return to Swedish territorial waters for an investigation. According to initial investigations, the Swedish authorities assume that the Yi Peng 3 dragged its anchor over a distance of more than 160 kilometers across the seabed, the "Wall Street Journal" reports.

It seems unlikely that the crew did not notice this and the subsequent loss of speed. It is questionable whether there are any Russians on board: So far, China has not agreed to an inspection and questioning of the crew.

It is well known that drones are increasingly flying over sensitive facilities in Germany. While there were only nine such sightings in 2021, there were 172 in 2022. In 2023, the number skyrocketed to 450, according to the German news program Tagesschau.

The targets are not just barracks or military airfields: Drones have also been spotted over the ChemCoast Park in Brunsbüttel in northern Germany, for example. Other examples include sightings over a nuclear power plant or a gas terminal.

Even allies visiting Germany are being targeted: as the UK's newest aircraft carrier sailed into the port of Hamburg, a 1.5 by 1.5 meter drone was spotted near the berth on 22 November. It was brought down from the sky by HP-47 jammers, reports "Bild".

But the problem also exists in the UK itself and in the USA. Investigations are underway on the island after drones were spotted at four US bases in the UK. The British Defense Minister Maria Eagle announced that those behind the investigations would face "the full force of the law".

At the beginning of November, the Wall Street Journal revealed that Western security forces had uncovered two cases in which Russia had allegedly attempted to place incendiary devices in DHL logistics centers. They were discovered in July in Birmingham, Great Britain, and in Leipzig, Germany. US authorities have therefore stepped up their checks at airports, adds NBC News.

When a DHL cargo plane crashes near Vilnius in Lithuania on November 25, which had also come from Leipzig, this naturally raises questions. According to Reuters, the Lithuanian defense minister says that initial investigations do not point to a criminal act. "There are no signs of an act of sabotage," summarizes Laurynas Kasciunas.

There is no evidence of an impact before the crash or of smoke or any odors on board that would indicate an attack. Instead, the Lithuanian authorities initially assume that a technical failure caused the crash.

Before the US elections, the FBI repeatedly exposed fake videos from Russia and warned against Moscow's attempts to influence the elections. BND President Kahl also expects attempts to influence the early federal elections in February. Although the election process itself can hardly be influenced, "Russia's involvement in the political opinion-forming process" has already been seen in previous votes.

In the Kremlin, issues in Germany such as corona or the climate are analyzed in detail and social conflicts are stirred up, said Kahl. The right and left fringes of the political spectrum then "naively parrot" what is being said. "Of course, this has an impact on the elections, on the election results."

The Kremlin is also said to have attempted to manipulate the landmark elections in Moldova. Similar accusations were made in Romania, where a right-wing, pro-Russian candidate reached the run-off.

According to the BND experts, high-ranking officials in the Russian Ministry of Defense apparently had doubts as to whether the NATO standby obligations and the extended deterrence of the USA for Europe would hold in an emergency.

"There are currently no indications of Russia's concrete intentions for war," says BND chief Kahl, "but if such views gain the upper hand in Moscow's government headquarters, the risk of a military conflict will grow in the coming years." The focus would then "certainly not be on a large-scale land grab".

According to BND assessments, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian leadership were rather aiming for the failure of NATO as a defense alliance. Before a war with NATO, the Kremlin would probably first threaten Europe - "the nuclear rumblings that can be heard from time to time are also part of this", said Kahl.

Russia wants to test its willingness to stand by before a conflict and dissuade individual allies from the common political lines and from defending themselves. The BND chief warned that Moscow was attempting to divide NATO before the start of a possible war. "The Kremlin probably assumes that the West will have difficulties finding the right common answers in a world characterized by multiple conflicts," he added.

With material from dpa.