Politics A little withdrawal? USA changes military presence in Iraq

The USA wants to realign its military presence in Iraq. High-ranking US government officials announced a two-stage "transition" - away from the current international military coalition in the country and towards a bilateral security partnership. A senior US government official emphasized in Washington: "Let me be clear: the United States is not withdrawing its troops from Iraq." However, the Americans were extremely tight-lipped about the details, leaving many questions unanswered.

The USA is leading an international coalition in Iraq and Syria to fight the Islamic State (IS) terrorist militia, "Operation Inherent Resolve". The operation began after IS overran large parts of Iraq and neighboring Syria in 2014. With the support of the anti-IS alliance, in which the German Armed Forces are also involved, the Iraqi security forces were able to gradually push back the extremists. In 2017, Iraq declared military victory over IS, but its cells remained active in the country and continued to carry out attacks. Since 2021, the coalition's mission has mainly consisted of training and advisory tasks.

The declared aim was ultimately to work with the Iraqi armed forces to prevent a resurgence of IS. According to observers, however, the USA was also concerned with limiting the influence of its arch-enemy Iran. According to this, the presence of US troops in Iraq also served to disrupt supply lines for Iran, for example for weapons deliveries, and to deter pro-Iranian militias in the region.

A repositioning with many question marks

A first phase of the transition is planned by the end of September 2025, during which the presence of coalition troops at "certain locations in Iraq" is to be ended. However, the alliance's deployment in Syria will continue. "The US and Iraq recognize that ISIS in Syria continues to pose a significant threat to the region," said the senior US government official. In order to prevent a return of the IS terror threat from north-east Syria, the US and Iraq had agreed "that the coalition can continue to support counter-IS operations in Syria from Iraq during the second phase of the transition until at least September 2026".

The US government representatives did not provide any specific details on what the realignment means for the number of US soldiers and their deployment to certain locations in Iraq, even in response to various questions. They said that talks were continuing. In the course of the transition, there could be changes in numbers and also a change in the tasks of the US soldiers in order to better meet bilateral interests, the official said, emphasizing once again: "We are not withdrawing."

Bundeswehr also wants to stay in Iraq

In addition to Operation Inherent Resolve, there has been a NATO mission in Iraq since 2018, which serves to train and strengthen the military and security forces. The Bundeswehr is also involved in this. In the Bundestag, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called for approval for the continued participation of the Bundeswehr in the international military engagement in Iraq. He warned that the threat of IS terror had not been averted. Iraq was a key country for combating the threat, as well as for the stability of the increasingly volatile region.

The German government wants to be able to continue sending up to 500 men and women of the German Armed Forces to the country. The mandate for this is to run until January 31, 2026. "NATO Mission Iraq is to be continued at Iraq's request," said Pistorius. "Operation Inherent Resolve should be brought to an end in the long term."

Soldiers targeted by militias loyal to Iran

According to the US government, around 2,500 American soldiers are currently stationed in Iraq. According to the Pentagon, there were around 700 in Syria in April, some of which were small bases in the middle of the desert. Militias allied with Iran have claimed hundreds of attacks on these sites since the outbreak of the Gaza war almost a year ago. As Israel's most important ally, the USA has become even more of an enemy to Iran and its proxies than before.

Calls for withdrawal - and warnings against it

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani is under pressure from groups, political parties and militias loyal to Iran to press ahead with the withdrawal of US troops. He has repeatedly emphasized that there is "no longer any justification" for the large US presence in the country. The US-led military coalition against IS was no longer necessary. The group had been defeated and no longer posed a real challenge.

Observers believe that the terrorist organization no longer poses an existential threat to Iraq. However, the Iraqi security forces themselves only have limited capacities and have difficulties in coordinating ground and air operations, for example. Particularly in Kurdish areas, a withdrawal of troops in the country is viewed skeptically, also because of the militias operating from the country and supported by Iran.

Experts warn that a withdrawal of US troops could create a vacuum that Iraqi security forces would not be able to fill. This poses the risk that pro-Iranian groups, remnants of IS and other groups could use Iraq even more as a base of operations for attacks against the USA and its allies, not least Israel.

The divided mood is probably one of the reasons why the Americans are so reticent about the details of their future deployment and are announcing an interim solution for the time being: a change that has not yet been defined in more detail, but no withdrawal.

SDA